A
Vision
for
the
Future:
AOML
will be a major NOAA center for the collection, dissemination,
and use of global oceanographic and surface marine atmospheric
data needed to increase the agency's ability to:
•
Accurately forecast weather and climate,
•
Increase confidence in global warming and climate change scenarios,
•
Improve our understanding of the role of the oceans in the cycling
of climatically important trace gases, and
•
Increase understanding of air sea interactions.
To
achieve these objectives, AOML research and operational efforts
during the next five years will be expanded in the following
areas:
•
Continue and intensify large scale climate research: It is our
plan to (a) intensify our research on ocean-atmosphere interactions
in the Atlantic sector with an eye to extracting maximum value
from the evolving Atlantic observation system; (b) continue
to study the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic
Ocean; and its relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation
and the role of the ocean in modifying the atmospheric circulation
on interannual and decadal scales with particular emphasis in
the tropical Atlantic; and (c) continue to explore the interactions
between Pacific and Atlantic variability, and between the interannual
and decadal time scales, and their impacts on climate variability
of the western hemisphere, including Pacific ENSO variability.
•
Constrain the oceanic carbon sink on seasonal to decadal time
scales as part of the U.S. carbon cycle science plan: On seasonal
time scales we will improve the estimates of air-sea fluxes
by leading process studies to parameterize the gas transfer
velocity with new methodology, and by increasing spatial and
temporal coverage of surface ocean CO2 measurements using autonomous
instruments from ships of opportunity and drifters. This work
will closely dovetail into the GOOS activities at AOML. On decadal
timescales we will reoccupy a critical subset of WOCE cruise
lines and perform hydrographic, tracer, and CO2 system measurements
to quantify the anthropogenic CO2 increase in the ocean.
•
Assess the role of oceanic uptake and emission of halocarbons
and hydrocarbons on atmospheric ozone levels on atmospheric
ozone and climate change: AOML will improve the oceanic source/sink
functions used by chemical and climate models by mapping the
oceanic saturations for these trace gases using automated instruments
on ships of opportunity. This work ties in well with the GOOS
objectives. We will continue to examine the processes controlling
these saturations through intensive field and laboratory studies
built on the framework of the global mapping project. The combination
of continuous ocean monitoring and intensive studies will allow
us to establish forcing functions for uptake and emission fluxes
to include in models, both in-house and extramural, that can
examine the potential feedback that may affect and be affected
by climate change.
•
Fortify research on the climate of the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS)
region: The emergence of multiple programs for climate research
and applications in the Americas (PACS, IAI, IRI), AOML's natural
interests and contacts in the Caribbean and surrounding region,
and AOML's pioneering research and participation in IAS initiatives,
all point to the future strategic importance of the IAS climate
for both the U.S. and our neighbors to the south. AOML can play
a key role in this process, and we will continue to increase
our efforts to understand the regional ocean-atmosphere interactions,
the IAS linkages to global climate patterns, and the effects
of IAS ocean variability on pollutants and marine resources.
We will also cooperate with concerned regional and international
entities to improve the applications of our research to the
regional needs of agriculture, energy, and marine resources.
In
what concerns operations, it is our plan to:
•
Strengthen the GOOS Center activities: Global sustained observations
of the ocean and overlying atmosphere are needed to satisfy
NOAA's weather and climate missions and for use in major research
programs (e.g., CLIVAR). The NOAA GOOS Center will participate
in activities to (1) improve instrumentation, (2) increase the
quality and quantity of required data, (3) increase accessibility
to our data, and (4) generate products that will characterize
the present state of the ocean.
•
Formulate and participate in the design and operations of a
Climate Observing System for the Tropical Atlantic: Research
conducted at AOML and other institutions has shown that the
tropical Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in the climate
of the eastern United States and the Caribbean. There is a need
for additional observations both to support climate studies
and to enhance forecast capabilities. AOML has played a leading
role in planning and implementing the Tropical Observing System
and will continue to use the data to study the interactions
between the tropical Atlantic and global climate.
To
achieve our vision, it will also be necessary for AOML scientists
to be more proactive in the generation of new programs that
will attract support from the Executive Branch and Congress.
AOML scientists are actively working on obtaining this support
through the planning and development of major scientific (GODAE,
CLIVAR, COSTA, PACS, ACVE, SOLAS, COAG) and operational (GCOS,
GOOS) programs. AOML scientists also participate in the NOAA
strategic planning activities. We plan to continue and reinforce
those activities.