modeling - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Record warm ocean temperatures fuel longest-lasting 2023 US heatwave

AOML Communications — Thu, 17 Jul 2025 17:51:52 +0000

Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. In a new study published in Nature Communications, scientists found a link between the long-lasting 2023 heatwave over the southwest US and Mexico and the record warm sea surface temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean.

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New NOAA system ushers in next generation of hurricane modeling, forecasting

AOML Communications — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 20:22:31 +0000

Originally published on noaa.gov on January 13th, 2025. Accurate forecasts and early warnings from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) — are vital to safeguarding communities that are in the paths of hurricanes and tropical storms. As we kick off the new year, now is the perfect time to look back […]

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NOAA and India team up to create life-saving tropical cyclone forecast model for nation of a billion

AOML Communications — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 17:43:32 +0000

A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. […]

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Equipping the next generation of hurricane model scientists

AOML Communications — Thu, 27 Jun 2024 16:39:51 +0000

In May 2024, representatives from the Hurricane Modeling Team at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) hosted a Summer Colloquium focused on equipping the next generation of hurricane scientists with a knowledge base of the HAFS model.

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Unveiling the innovative advancements in hurricane modeling

AOML Communications — Tue, 04 Jun 2024 17:39:22 +0000

With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions.

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Developments in Hurricane Model Contributed to its Lasting Legacy

AOML Communications — Tue, 30 Apr 2024 15:20:43 +0000

Improvements in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model paved the way for tropical cyclone prediction and modeling by lowering intensity forecast errors by 45-50%.

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