PREDICTION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE
Principal Investigator:
Sim D. Aberson
Objective:
Evaluation of methods to provide estimates of model error in operational
forecasts of tropical cyclone motion.
Rationale:
A slow and steady increase in skill of operational tropical
cyclone track forecasts has occured in recent years. A number of
operational track forecast models have average skill approaching
40%, yet none of them performs well consistently, and a serious
challenge for operational forecasters is to choose which of the
various possibilities presented by the ensemble of different
models is the most likely to occur. Not only should the guidance
itself be presented to forecasters, but an estimate of the
confidence which should be placed in that forecast as well.
Thus, statistical Prediction of Model Performance (POMP),
complementing efforts in ensemble forecasting, is pursued.
Method:
A method to objectively estimate the confidence in track forecasts
has been developed for the ensemble of models currently in use.
Data from the synoptic situation in the environment of each
tropical cyclone, climatological data, and past performance of
each model are analyzed from the 1989 - 1998 hurricane seasons to
allow a linear discriminant analysis to differentiate between
forecasts which are expected to perform well from those expected
to be poor, giving the forecasters an object estimate of
confidence of the individual forecasts.
Accomplishment:
The linear discriminant analysis for the HRD VICBAR model has shown that
individual forecasts which are expected to be poor can be differentiated
from those expected to be good, allowing forecasters to disregard the
expected-poor information and improve their forecasts. Since the
ensemble mean forecasts are, on average, better than forecasts from
individual models, this information can be used to provide
weighted-ensemble mean predictions to forecasters.
Key references:
Aberson, S. D., and M. DeMaria, 1994: Verification of a
nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR).
Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2804-2815.
Aberson, S. D., 1997: The prediction of the performance of a
nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model.
Wea. Forecasting, 12, 24-30.
Aberson, S. D., 1998: Five day tropical cyclone track
forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting,
13, 1005-1015.
Sim Aberson administrative
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Last modified: 5/24/99