Research Highlights
Research Interests
Real-time statistical tropical cyclone intensity prediction model development.
Tropical cyclone rapid intensification prediction.
Tropical cyclone genesis prediction.
Post-landfall tropical cyclone decay and wind gust prediction.
Tropical cyclone vortex and environmental interaction.
Tropical cyclone wind gust analysis and prediction.
John Kaplan
Meteorologist, Hurricane Research Division
305.361.4506
4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Florida 33149
“My scientific goal is to increase our understanding of tropical cyclones with the ultimate goal of improving the prediction of their impacts.”
John Kaplan is the co-developer of several statistical dynamical intensity prediction models that are presently used for operational forecasting at the National Hurricane Center. These models include the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (SHIPS-RII) and the Tropical cyclone genesis index (TCGI). The SHIPS model is a multiple-linear regression model that utilizes environmental and satellite-derived predictors to provide operational intensity forecasts every 6 hours out to 120 hours for tropical and subtropical cyclones in both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins (DeMaria and Kaplan 1994; Kaplan and DeMaria 1995; DeMaria et al. 2005) while the SHIPS-RII (Kaplan et al. 2015) utilizes a subset of the SHIPS model predictors to estimate the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification within the succeeding 72-h utilizing linear-discriminant analysis. The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI) is a statistical model developed to estimate the probability that a tropical cyclone will form within the next 48 hours and 120 hours in either the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific basins utilizing environmental and satellite information (Dunion et al. 2019).
Current Work
Employ newly derived oceanic variables to develop improved versions of the operational SHIPS rapid intensification index (SHIPS-RII) that is presently utilized by the National Hurricane Center to aid in the forecasting of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in support of a currently funded NOAA JTTI proposal.
Utilize in-situ surface wind data to improve our understanding and ability to forecast the magnitude of wind gusts produced by landfalling tropical cyclones in support of a currently funded NOAA/HFIP proposal.
Utilize the operational statistical tropical cycle genesis model (TCGI) for use in global ensemble tropical cyclone genesis prediction.
1986, M.S., Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA
1983, B.S., Meteorology, The State University of New York at Oneonta, Oneonta, NY
- Chen, X., C.M. Rozoff, R.F. Rogers, K.L. Corbosiero, D. Tao, J.-F. Gu, F. Judt, E.A. Hendricks, Y. Wang, M.M. Bell, D.P. Stern, K.D. Musgrave, J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan. Research advances on internal processes affecting tropical cyclone intensity change from 2018–2022. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):10-29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.001 2023
Ref. 4262 - Wang, W., Z. Zhang, J.P. Cangialosi, M. Brennan, L. Cowan, P. Clegg, T. Hosomi, I. Masaaki, A. Kumar Das, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, T. Birchard, J. Doyle, J. Heming, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, S. Ma, C. Sampson, L. Wu, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 2: Forecasts by operational centers. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):50-63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003 2023
Ref. 4265 - Zhang, Z., W. Wang, J. Doyle, J. Moskaitis, W. Komaromi, J. Heming, L. Magnusson, J.P. Cangialosi, L. Cowan, M. Brennan, S. Ma, A. Kumar Dos, T. Hosomi, P. Clegg, T. Birchard, J. Knaff, J. Kaplan, M. Mohapatra, M. Sharma, I. Masaaki, and E. Blake. A review of recent advances (2018-2021) on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives, Part 1: Dynamical model guidance. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(1):30-49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004 2023
Ref. 4263
2011 U.S. Department of Commerce Bronze Medal – (Co-recipient along with Mark DeMaria and John Knaff of NOAA/NESDIS)
For providing skillful operational hurricane intensity models as demonstrated by the NHC forecast verifications for the 2009 and 2010 seasons.
2011 NASA Group Achievement Award
For outstanding contributions to the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field campaign as members of the GRIP Science Team during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
2002 NASA Group Achievement Award – presented to the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 4) Science Team
For outstanding accomplishments and contributions to the extremely successful Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 4) conducted from Jacksonville, Florida in August and September 2001.
2002 American Meteorological Society Banner I. Miller Award – (Co-recipient along with Mark DeMaria of NOAA/NESDIS)
For the best contribution to the science of hurricane and tropical weather forecasting published in a journal with international circulation during the 48 months prior to the presentation of this award.
For the first ever model-based skillful operational intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones documented in the two papers published during the years 1998-2001, ‘An Updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins’ (WAF, Vol. 14) and ‘On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds after Landfall in the New England Area’ (JAM, Vol. 40).
1997 U.S. Department of Commerce Bronze Medal – (Co-recipient along with Mark DeMaria of NOAA/NESDIS)
For the development of an inland wind decay model which predicts inland wind speeds produced by hurricanes.