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A Vision for the Future: 
AOML will be a major NOAA center for the collection, dissemination, and use of global oceanographic and surface marine atmospheric data needed to increase the agency's ability to:

Accurately forecast weather and climate,

Increase confidence in global warming and climate change scenarios,

Improve our understanding of the role of the oceans in the cycling of climatically important trace gases, and

Increase understanding of air sea interactions.

To achieve these objectives, AOML research and operational efforts during the next five years will be expanded in the following areas:

Continue and intensify large scale climate research: It is our plan to (a) intensify our research on ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Atlantic sector with an eye to extracting maximum value from the evolving Atlantic observation system; (b) continue to study the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean; and its relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the role of the ocean in modifying the atmospheric circulation on interannual and decadal scales with particular emphasis in the tropical Atlantic; and (c) continue to explore the interactions between Pacific and Atlantic variability, and between the interannual and decadal time scales, and their impacts on climate variability of the western hemisphere, including Pacific ENSO variability.

Constrain the oceanic carbon sink on seasonal to decadal time scales as part of the U.S. carbon cycle science plan: On seasonal time scales we will improve the estimates of air-sea fluxes by leading process studies to parameterize the gas transfer velocity with new methodology, and by increasing spatial and temporal coverage of surface ocean CO2 measurements using autonomous instruments from ships of opportunity and drifters. This work will closely dovetail into the GOOS activities at AOML. On decadal timescales we will reoccupy a critical subset of WOCE cruise lines and perform hydrographic, tracer, and CO2 system measurements to quantify the anthropogenic CO2 increase in the ocean.

Assess the role of oceanic uptake and emission of halocarbons and hydrocarbons on atmospheric ozone levels on atmospheric ozone and climate change: AOML will improve the oceanic source/sink functions used by chemical and climate models by mapping the oceanic saturations for these trace gases using automated instruments on ships of opportunity. This work ties in well with the GOOS objectives. We will continue to examine the processes controlling these saturations through intensive field and laboratory studies built on the framework of the global mapping project. The combination of continuous ocean monitoring and intensive studies will allow us to establish forcing functions for uptake and emission fluxes to include in models, both in-house and extramural, that can examine the potential feedback that may affect and be affected by climate change.

Fortify research on the climate of the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) region: The emergence of multiple programs for climate research and applications in the Americas (PACS, IAI, IRI), AOML's natural interests and contacts in the Caribbean and surrounding region, and AOML's pioneering research and participation in IAS initiatives, all point to the future strategic importance of the IAS climate for both the U.S. and our neighbors to the south. AOML can play a key role in this process, and we will continue to increase our efforts to understand the regional ocean-atmosphere interactions, the IAS linkages to global climate patterns, and the effects of IAS ocean variability on pollutants and marine resources. We will also cooperate with concerned regional and international entities to improve the applications of our research to the regional needs of agriculture, energy, and marine resources.

In what concerns operations, it is our plan to:

Strengthen the GOOS Center activities: Global sustained observations of the ocean and overlying atmosphere are needed to satisfy NOAA's weather and climate missions and for use in major research programs (e.g., CLIVAR). The NOAA GOOS Center will participate in activities to (1) improve instrumentation, (2) increase the quality and quantity of required data, (3) increase accessibility to our data, and (4) generate products that will characterize the present state of the ocean.

Formulate and participate in the design and operations of a Climate Observing System for the Tropical Atlantic: Research conducted at AOML and other institutions has shown that the tropical Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in the climate of the eastern United States and the Caribbean. There is a need for additional observations both to support climate studies and to enhance forecast capabilities. AOML has played a leading role in planning and implementing the Tropical Observing System and will continue to use the data to study the interactions between the tropical Atlantic and global climate.

To achieve our vision, it will also be necessary for AOML scientists to be more proactive in the generation of new programs that will attract support from the Executive Branch and Congress. AOML scientists are actively working on obtaining this support through the planning and development of major scientific (GODAE, CLIVAR, COSTA, PACS, ACVE, SOLAS, COAG) and operational (GCOS, GOOS) programs. AOML scientists also participate in the NOAA strategic planning activities. We plan to continue and reinforce those activities.

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Last updated: 01/25/2001