Abstract:

A synthesis of information products about environmental stressors provided in near real-time can serve environmental managers who seek to act decisively before stressors become unmanageable. We have created ecological forecasts, i.e., ecoforecasts, based on input from a variety of environmental sensors that report in near real-time, and we subsequently send those ecoforecasts to environmental managers. The application behind these ecoforecasts is Python-based software that uses an artificial intelligence (AI) inference engine called an expert system. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Environmental Information Synthesizer (NEIS), formerly the Environmental Information Synthesizer for Expert Systems (EISES), has been developed over two decades to meet the needs of environmental managers and scientists. NEIS integrates environmental data from multiple sources, including in situ and satellite sensors. The application produces ecoforecasts designed to identify environmental conditions conducive to mass coral bleaching and bleaching of specific coral species, as well as other marine environmental events such as algal blooms. This study evaluates the efficacy of coral bleaching ecoforecasts generated by NEIS for the Florida reef tract covering the years 2005–2017.

Abstract:

During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4-5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement.

Abstract:

For the last 7 years, Florida’s Coral Reef (FCR) has suffered from widespread and severe coral loss caused by stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD). First observed off the coast of Miami-Dade County in 2014, the outbreak has since spread throughout the entirety of FCR and some areas of the Caribbean. However, the propagation of the disease through FCR seemed to slow down when it reached the western end of the Marquesas in August 2020. Despite being present about 30 km (∼20 miles) from the Dry Tortugas (DRTO), SCTLD was not reported in this area before May 2021. As SCTLD transmission is likely to be waterborne, here we suggest that this apparently delayed propagation is related to eddy activity near the DRTO under the influence of the Loop Current/Florida Current system. To quantify the impact of the local ocean circulation on the spread of SCTLD from the Marquesas and the DRTO, we evaluated the hydrodynamic-predicted connectivity between these two regions using a high-resolution hydro-epidemiological model between May 2018 and May 2021. Our results suggest that the Marquesas and the DRTO were not connected during February-October 2020 and January-May 2021. These periods coincided with either the occurrence of Tortugas gyres and mean circulation with an eastward component between the Marquesas and the DRTO or the presence of southward currents. Our results suggest that disease agents probably reached the DRTO in November 2020 and that they most likely originated from southern or northwestern reefs of the Marquesas. This study provides novel insight into the role played by the hydrodynamics in the spread of SCTLD within the western-most edge of FCR, and in propagating the disease to uninfected locations

Abstract:

This study demonstrates a link between coastal downwelling and tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. We show that coastal downwelling increases air-sea enthalpy (heat, moisture) fluxes ahead of TCs as they approach land, creating conditions conducive to intensification even in the presence of typically inhibiting factors like strong vertical wind shear. The study uses a coupled TC model (HWRF-B) and buoy observations to demonstrate that coastal downwelling developed as three TCs in 2020 approached land. Results show downwelling maintained warmer sea-surface temperatures over the ocean shelf, enhancing air-sea temperature/humidity contrasts. We found that in such cases resulting air-sea enthalpy fluxes can replenish the boundary-layer even when cool, dry air intrudes, as in sheared storms and storms approaching continental land-masses. The resulting warm, moist air is advected into the TC inner core, enhancing convective development, thus providing energy for TC intensification. These results indicate coastal downwelling can be important in forecasting TC intensity change before landfall.

Abstract:

The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts by HAFS-globalnest and a similar global-nested model, the Tropical Atlantic version of GFDL’s System for High-resolution prediction on Earth- to- Local Domains (T-SHiELD). HAFS-globalnest produced the highest track forecast skill compared to several operational and experimental models, while T-SHiELD showed promising track skill as well. The intensity forecasts from HAFS-globalnest generally had a positive bias at longer lead times primarily due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a much smaller intensity bias particularly at longer forecast lead times. With the introduction of a modified planetary boundary layer scheme and an increased number of vertical levels, particularly in the boundary layer, HAFS forecasts of storm size had a smaller positive bias than occurred in the 2019 version of HAFS-globalnest. Despite track forecasts that were comparable to the operational GFS and HWRF, both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD suffered from a persistent right-of-track bias in several cases at the 4-5 day forecast lead times. The reasons for this bias were related to the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western North Atlantic and are continuing to be investigated and diagnosed. A few key case studies from this very active hurricane season, including Hurricanes Laura and Delta, were examined. 

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new multi-storm atmosphere/ocean coupling scheme that was implemented and tested in the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) model. HWRF-B, an experimental model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, is configured with multiple storm-following nested domains to produce high-resolution predictions for several tropical cyclones (TCs) within the same forecast integration. The new coupling scheme parallelizes atmosphere/ocean interactions for each nested domain in HWRF-B, and it may be applied to any atmosphere/ocean coupled system. TC forecasts from this new hydrodynamical modeling system were produced in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2017–2019. The performance of HWRF-B was evaluated, including forecasts of TC track, intensity, structure (e.g., surface wind radii), and intensity change, and simulated sea-surface temperatures were compared with satellite observations. Median forecast skill scores showed significant improvement over the operational HWRF at most forecast lead times for track, intensity, and structure. Sea-surface temperatures cooled by 1–8 °C for the five HWRF-B case studies, demonstrating the utility of the model to study the impact of the ocean on TC intensity forecasting. These results show the value of a multi-storm modeling system and provide confidence that the multi-storm coupling scheme was implemented correctly. Future TC models within NOAA, especially the Unified Forecast System’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, would benefit from the multi-storm coupling scheme whose utility and performance are demonstrated in HWRF-B here.

Abstract:

For the last six years, the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) has been experiencing an outbreak of the Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (SCTLD). First reported off the coast of Miami-Dade County in 2014, the SCTLD has since spread throughout the entire FRT with the exception of the Dry Tortugas. However, the causative agent for this outbreak is currently unknown. Here we show how a high-resolution bio-physical model coupled with a modified patch Susceptible-Infectious-Removed epidemic model can characterize the potential causative agent(s) of the disease and its vector. In the present study, the agent is assumed to be transported within composite material (e.g., coral mucus, dying tissues, and/or resuspended sediments) driven by currents and potentially persisting in the water column for extended periods of time. In this framework, our simulations suggest that the SCTLD is likely to be propagated within neutrally buoyant material driven by mean barotropic currents. Calibration of our model parameters with field data shows that corals are diseased within a mean transmission time of 6.45 days, with a basic reproduction number slightly above 1. Furthermore, the propagation speed of the disease through the FRT is shown to occur for a well-defined range of values of a disease threshold, defined as the fraction of diseased corals that causes an exponential growth of the disease in the reef site. Our results present a new connectivity-based approach to understand the spread of the SCTLD through the FRT. Such a method can provide a valuable complement to field observations and lab experiments to support the management of the epidemic as well as the identification of its causative agent.

Abstract:

This technical report describes the activities and results of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) that occurred in 2019. The major development focus in 2019 was on building the next generation hurricane model—the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)—primarily for track and intensity predictions. This report summarizes the progress in 2019, including model developments and the first year of progress made towards transforming it into the next generation of HFIP.

Abstract:

The role of elevated sea temperatures in coral bleaching has been well documented. Many of the sea temperature records utilized for purposes of widespread, multi-species bleaching predictions in recent publications have been acquired through satellite remote sensing. Satellites estimate sea temperatures at only a narrow range of depths near the surface of the ocean and may, therefore, not adequately represent the true temperatures endured by the world’s coral ecosystems. To better characterize sea temperature regimes that coral reef ecosystems experience, as well as better define the individual thresholds for each species that bleaches, in situ sea temperature sensors are required. Commercial sensors are expensive in large quantities, however, reducing the capacity to conduct large-scale research programs to elucidate the range of significant scales of temperature variability. At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), we designed a low-cost (roughly US $9 in parts) and high-precision sea temperature sensor that uses an Arduino microprocessor board and a high accuracy thermistor. This new temperature sensor autonomously records temperatures onto a memory chip and provides better accuracy (+0.05°C) than a comparable commercial sensor (+0.2°C). Moreover, it is not difficult to build—anyone who knows how to solder can build the temperature sensor. In March 2019, students at middle and high schools in Broward County, Florida built close to 60 temperature sensors. During 2019, these sensors will be deployed by Reef Check, a global-scale coral reef monitoring organization, as well as by other programs, to determine worldwide sea temperature regimes through the Opuhala Project (https://www.coral.noaa.gov/opuhala). This paper chronicles results from the initial proof-of-concept deployments for these AOML-designed sensors.

Abstract:

Starting in 2011, coastal areas of the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean began to experience extraordinary yearly accumulations of pelagic Sargassum brown alga. Historical reports place large quantities of Sargassum only in the North Atlantic (mostly in the Gulf of Mexico and the Sargasso Sea). Accumulations of Sargassum in the tropical Atlantic have continued. We used a numerical particle-tracking system, wind and current reanalysis data, drifting buoy trajectories, and satellite imagery to determine the origin of the Sargassum that is now found persistently in the tropical Atlantic. Our analyses suggest that during the extreme negative phase of the winter 2009-2010 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), unusually strong and southward-shifted westerly winds explain the transport of Sargassum from the Sargasso Sea (∼20-40°N, 80-20°W) into the far eastern North Atlantic. Our hindcast Sargassum distributions agree with surface current simulations with the inclusion of “windage”. Windage is the additional, wind-induced drift of material floating at the free surface resulting from direct wind forcing on the sea surface, as well as on floating or partially-submerged objects. In our simulations, windage is included as an added vector (speed and direction) to the model-computed surface ocean currents equivalent to 1% of surface wind velocities. Lagrangian analysis of the regional circulation suggests that (1) part of the Sargassum subsequently drifted to the southwest in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and entered the central tropical Atlantic, arriving in the Caribbean by the spring of 2011, with (2) another portion continuing southward along the coast of Africa in the Canary Current, eventually joining the seasonally-varying system of tropical Atlantic currents and thereby delivering a large Sargassum population to the tropical Atlantic. Since then, Sargassum patches aggregate from March to September in massive windrows along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) under the action of converging winds. The windrows follow the ITCZ in its seasonal northward migration in the central tropical Atlantic. They are stretched across the central tropical Atlantic as the ITCZ crosses the latitude of the seasonal formation of the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). These patches and windrows are exposed to high sunlight and open-ocean upward flux of nutrients due to eddy and wind-driven mixing in the central tropical Atlantic. During the northern spring and summer, as the Sargassum drifts farther north with the ITCZ, large portions of the population are advected into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Some of these patches remain dispersed as the ITCZ migrates southward, and re-aggregate into new windrows as the ITCZ intensifies the following March-April. If wind mixing is strong and the mixed layer is deeper than about 50-60 m in the southern tropical Atlantic at this time, the Sargassum will bloom and form a massive windrow. Otherwise, the bloom will be inhibited. The extreme 2009-2010 NAO wind anomaly could be considered as triggering a biosphere “tipping point” that caused important ocean-scale ecosystem changes in the tropical Atlantic, with significant recurrent social and economic consequences. Understanding whether this new expanded geographic range of massive Sargassum blooms is temporary or whether it will revert to its pre-2009 distribution requires sustained monitoring and research.

Abstract:

Coral reefs are exceptionally biodiverse and human dependence on their ecosystem services is high. Reefs experience significant direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures, and provide a sensitive indicator of coastal ocean health, climate change, and ocean acidification, with associated implications for society. Monitoring coral reef status and trends is essential to better inform science, management and policy, but the projected collapse of reef systems within a few decades makes the provision of accurate and actionable monitoring data urgent. The Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network has been the foundation for global reporting on coral reefs for two decades, and is entering into a new phase with improved operational and data standards incorporating the Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) (www.goosocean.org/eov) and Framework for Ocean Observing developed by the Global Ocean Observing System. Three EOVs provide a robust description of reef health: hard coral cover and composition, macro-algal canopy cover, and fish diversity and abundance. A data quality model based on comprehensive metadata has been designed to facilitate maximum global coverage of coral reef data, and tangible steps to track capacity building. Improved monitoring of events such as mass bleaching and disease outbreaks, citizen science, and socio-economic monitoring have the potential to greatly improve the relevance of monitoring to managers and stakeholders, and to address the complex and multi- dimensional interactions between reefs and people. A new generation of autonomous vehicles (underwater, surface, and aerial) and satellites are set to revolutionize and vastly expand our understanding of coral reefs. Promising approaches include Structure from Motion image processing, and acoustic techniques. Across all systems, curation of data in linked and open online databases, with an open data culture to maximize benefits from data integration, and empowering users to take action, are priorities. Action in the next decade will be essential to mitigate the impacts on coral reefs from warming temperatures, through local management and informing national and international obligations, particularly in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals, climate action, and the role of coral reefs as a global indicator. Mobilizing data to help drive the needed behavior change is a top priority for coral reef observing systems.

Abstract:

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide. In response to this habitat loss, there are efforts to grow, outplant, and restore corals in many regions. The physical oceanographic habitat of corals—such as sea temperature, waves, ocean currents, and available light—is spatially heterogeneous. We therefore hypothesize that outplant location may affect microbiomes, and ultimately, coral health and restoration success. We evaluated the influence of the physical oceanographic habitat on microbes in wild Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea. Tissue samples were collected at four Florida reefs in March, June, and September of 2015. We estimated oceanographic conditions from moored instruments, diver observations, remote sensing data, and numerical models. We analyzed microbiomes using amplicon 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing data. We found microbial alpha-diversity negatively correlated with in situ sea temperature (which represented both the annual cycle and upwelling), as well as modeled alongshore currents, in situ sea-level, and modeled tide. Microbial beta-diversity correlated positively with significant wave height and alongshore currents from models, remotely-sensed relative turbidity, and in situ temperature. We found that archaea from the order Marine Group II decrease with increases in significant wave height, suggesting that this taxon may be influenced by waves. Also, during times of high wave activity, the relative abundance of bacteria from the order Flavobacteriales increases, which may be due to resuspension and cross-shelf transport of sediments. We also found that bacteria from the order SAR86 increase in relative abundance with increased temperature, which suggests that this taxon may play a role in the coral microbiome during periods of higher temperature. Overall, we find that physical oceanographic variability correlates with the structure of these coral microbiomes in ways that could be significant to coral health.

Abstract:

This 3-year project was designed to assist in providing data for use in the development of nutrient numeric criteria, as required by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Researchers with AOML's Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division conducted field work during the first 2 years of the project, followed by the development of various deliverables, including this final report, which describes in detail four separate efforts: (1) water quality cruises; (2) ocean current measurements; and (3) coral assessments; and (4) microbiological assessments.

Abstract:

NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program funded a study from 2013 to 2015 to determine the feasibility of monitoring turbidity plumes in reef waters for three U.S. jurisdictions, one of which was the Southeast Florida Shelf and northern Florida reef tract. This report presents the results of that study. It shows that with care, satellite ocean color can be used to remotely monitor sources and instances of coastal ocean turbidity.

Abstract:

Since 2011, beach inundation of massive amounts of pelagic Sargassum algae has occurred around the Caribbean nations and islands. Extensive prior studies have applied satellite ocean color to determine the origins of this phenomenon. These techniques, combined with complementary approaches, suggest that, rather than blooms originating in the Caribbean, they arrive from the Equatorial Atlantic. However, oceanographic context for these occurrences remains limited. Here, we present results from synthetic particle tracking experiments that characterize the interannual and seasonal dynamics of ocean currents and winds likely to influence the transport of Sargassum from the Equatorial Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea. Our findings suggest that Sargassum present in the western Equatorial Atlantic (west of longitude 50°W) has a high probability of entering the Caribbean Sea within a year’s time. Transport routes include the Guiana Current, North Brazil Current Rings, and the North Equatorial Current north of the North Brazil Current Retroflection. The amount of Sargassum following each route varies seasonally. This has important implications for the amount of time it takes Sargassum to reach the Caribbean Sea. By weighting particle transport predictions with Sargassum concentrations at release sites in the western Equatorial Atlantic, our simulations explain close to 90% of the annual variation in observed Sargassum abundance entering the Caribbean Sea. Additionally, results from our numerical experiments are in good agreement with observations of variability in the timing of Sargassum movement from the Equatorial Atlantic to the Caribbean, and observations of the spatial extent of Sargassum occurrence throughout the Caribbean. However, this work also highlights some areas of uncertainty that should be examined, in particular the effect of “windage” and other surface transport processes on the movement of Sargassum. Our results provide a useful launching point to predict Sargassum beaching events along the Caribbean islands well in advance of their occurrence and, more generally, to understand the movement ecology of a floating ecosystem that is essential habitat to numerous marine species.

Abstract:

The NOAA Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) network is a growing number of oceanographic and meteorological monitoring stations situated at coral reef areas of critical concern. The near real-time data from these stations are archived at NOAA and form the basis of daily ecological forecasts for coral bleaching, hydrodynamic events, and other marine environmental events of interest to environmental managers, researchers, and the public. The network began over 15 years ago with NOAA funding as a station in the Bahamas, and grew to include stations in Puerto Rico, St. Croix, Saipan, and with other sources of funding, Jamaica and Little Cayman. However, storms and other realities resulted in the destruction or removal of all of those stations, excluding Little Cayman, which continues operating today as a new buoy design. A new collaboration between NOAA and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Center has resulted in the expansion of the network to include two stations each in Belize, Tobago, and the Dominican Republic, plus one in Barbados. Each of these sites has required collaborations among each country's environmental managers and agencies before agreement as to where to place the stations and as to who would be conducting maintenance. The second phase will include four to six new stations among these likely candidates: Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bonaire, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Grenadines, Montserrat, San Andres, St. Kitts & Nevis, and St. Lucia & St. Vincent.

Abstract:

Each year, subject to the availability of funds, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Conservation Program (NOAA CRCP) awards grants for applied research that informs conservation and management of coral reefs within the U.S. and abroad. During recent years, project funds have been awarded to scientists and managers working to increase our understanding of reef resilience and of the application of resilience thinking in management decision-making. Operationally, from a coral reef management perspective, resilience is the capacity of a reef to resist and/or recover in the future given its probable exposure regime and to maintain provision of ecosystem goods and services. The first half of this definition speaks to ecological and engineering resilience and the second to the strong links between ecological and social resilience, especially in areas where communities are dependent on reefs for food security and livelihoods. It is this combination of factors that is of interest to the Coral Program. For the purposes of this report we also use the term "resilience-based management" to mean the application of resilience theory, thinking, and tools to deliver ecosystem-based management outcomes into the future. Used in this way, resilience-based management serves as an approach that managers can take to evaluate whether existing or new actions are likely to maintain ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide as the climate changes. Held in Honolulu, Hawaii on November 4-6, 2014, this workshop represents the first gathering of resilience grantees and coral reef managers funded by NOAA CRCP. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), The Nature Conservancy (TNC), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) provided additional support for this workshop. The specific workshop goals were: To bring together NOAA scientists, external partners, and managers who are currently engaged in assessing and managing reefs for resilience in a changing climate to create the opportunity for face-to-face dialogue. Ensure that work across CRCP and partner programs is complementary and that efforts are contributing to and being informed by efforts in other parts of the world. Identify priority research, products, and collaborative projects, and make plans to advance this body of work over coming years in direct partnership with coral reef managers

Abstract:

Variability in 5-to 25-year records of hourly mean in situ sea temperature, ocean currents, and meteorology at diverse shallow-water habitats in the Florida reef tract (FRT) is analyzed. Tidal, diurnal, and annual periodicities generally dominate sea temperature variability, with strong variability apparent in the “weather band” of 3-42 d at one reef-flat site, and at the local inertial period at one offshore site near the shelf break. A statistically significant interannual warming trend is also observed at this one offshore site only. Significant covariability between sea temperature and coincident air temperature, wind speed, sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients, and incident radiation (light) is also found. However, this covariability itself varies with an annual period, and differs between sites with similar depths, apparently due to differences in seafloor slope. A coastal ocean reef heat budget is estimated from the hourly mean in situ sea temperature, meteorology, satellite SST, and reanalysis data for each site, together with a model of insolation absorption in the water column and heat exchange at the seafloor. A term for smaller-scale heat advection, the so-called horizontal convection (HC) or thermal siphon, previously observed at coral reefs elsewhere in the world, balances the heat budget. At six of the eight sites analyzed, the budget matches the long-term annual climatology of observed in situ sea temperature variability within estimated uncertainty, and matches full seasons at the two other sites. Budget results also match the observed daily sea temperature variability, with R²  > 0.3, root mean squared error

Abstract:

Variability in multi-decadal records of hourly mean in situ sea temperature at shallow water sites in the Florida reef tract (FRT) is analyzed. Tidal, diurnal, and annual periodicities generally dominate, with both "weather-band" and inertial-period variability apparent at different sites. An ocean heat budget is estimated for an 11-year period based on these data, atmospheric reanalysis, satellite sea-surface temperature fields, an operational surface wave model, and estimates of heat exchange with the seafloor substrate. Coincident in situ meteorological data were used to estimate errors in the budget. A term for a sub-kilometer scale dynamic process, so-called horizontal convection or the thermal siphon, is found to be necessary to balance the heat budget. Results are also very sensitive to the assumed rate of shortwave radiation absorption in the water column. Applications for improved remote sensing of benthic thermal stress at topographically complex coral reefs are briefly outlined.

Abstract: No abstract.

Abstract: Over the last ten years several wireless architectures have been developed for transmitting meteorological and oceanographic data (in real-time or near real-time) from coral reef ecosystems in Florida, the Caribbean, Saipan, and Australia. These architectures facilitate establishing trends in environmental parameters and aid in ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting. Here, existing architectures, as well as those currently in development, are described, incorporating use of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, radio transceivers, wireless digital cellular modems, mobile wireless hotspots, and Android phones. Each architecture is reviewed for advantages and disadvantages, along with some examples of deployments. These summaries provide reef managers and scientists with a suite of options for monitoring, allowing the selection of the most appropriate architecture for the particular needs and capacities of each coral reef location.

Abstract: No abstract.

Abstract:

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.

Abstract: Coral reefs are complex, biologically diverse, and highly valued ecosystems that are declining worldwide due to climate change and ocean acidification, overfishing, land-based sources of pollution, and other anthropogenic threats. To assist policymakers and resource managers at international, national, and local levels in effectively implementing ecosystem approaches to sustainable management and conservation of coral reefs and their biodiversity, it is necessary to have timely, unbiased integrated ecosystem observations about the conditions of coral reefs and the complex physical and biogeochemical processes supporting them. To provide these interdisciplinary ecosystem observations, an International network of Coral Reef Ecosystem Observing Systems (I-CREOS) is proposed that will organize and build upon existing coral reef observation systems being developed around the globe. This paper uses examples of some developing observation systems to demonstrate some of the approaches and technologies available for acquiring biological, physical, and geochemical observations using combinations of visual surveys, moored instrument arrays, spatial-hydrographic and water quality surveys, satellite remote sensing, and hydrodynamic and ecosystem modeling. This fledgling, and hopefully expanding, network of observing systems represents the early stages of an integrated ecosystem observing system for coral reefs capable of providing policymakers, resource managers, researchers, and other stakeholders with essential information products needed to assess various responses of coral reef ecosystems to natural variability and anthropogenic perturbations. While significant challenges and gaps in the I-CREOS network remain, it demonstrably fulfills the requirements of an operational, integrated, interdisciplinary, coastal component of GOOS. Continued support, further development, and open expansion of this emerging network are encouraged and needed to ensure the continually increasing value of the networks observational and predictive capacity. With common goals to maximize versatility, accessibility, and robustness, the existing infrastructure and capacity provide a foundation by which increased global cooperation and coordination could naturally lead to a globally comprehensive I-CREOS.

Abstract:

The role of wind stress curl (WSC) forcing in the observed interannual variability of the Florida Current (FC) transport is investigated. Evidence is provided for baroclinic adjustment as a physical mechanism linking interannual changes in WSC forcing and changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. A continuous monthly time series of FC transport is constructed using daily transports estimated from undersea telephone cables near 27°N in the Straits of Florida. This 25-yr-long time series is linearly regressed against interannual WSC variability derived from the NCEPNCAR reanalysis. The results indicate that a substantial fraction of the FC transport variability at 3-12-yr periods is explained by low-frequency WSC variations. A lagged regression analysis is performed to explore hypothetical adjustment times of the wind-driven circulation. The estimated lag times are at least 2 times faster than those predicted by linear beta-plane planetary wave theory. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed within the context of recent observational and theoretical developments. The results are then linked with earlier findings of a low-frequency anticorrelation between FC transport and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, showing that this relationship could result from the positive (negative) WSC anomalies that develop between 20° and 30°N in the western North Atlantic during high (low) NAO phases. Ultimately, the observed role of wind forcing on the interannual variability of the FC could represent a benchmark for current efforts to monitor and predict the North Atlantic circulation.

Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are vital to global weather prediction, climate change studies, fisheries management, and a wide range of other applications. Measurements are taken by several satellites carrying infrared and microwave radiometers, moored buoys, drifting buoys, and ships. Collecting all these measurements together and producing global maps of SST has been a difficult endeavor due in part to different data formats, data location and accessibility, and lack of measurement error estimates. The need for a uniform approach to SST measurements and estimation of measurement errors resulted in the formation of the international Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) High Resolution SST Pilot Project (GHRSST-PP). Projects were developed in Japan, Europe, and Australia. Simultaneously, in the United States, the Multi-sensor Improved SST (MISST) project was initiated. Five years later, the MISST project has produced satellite SST data from nine satellites in an identical format with ancillary information and estimates of measurement error. Use of these data in global SST analyses has been improved through research into modeling of the ocean surface skin layer and upper ocean diurnal heating. These data and research results have been used by several groups within MISST to produce high-resolution global maps of SSTs, which have been shown to improve tropical cyclone prediction. Additionally, the new SSTs are now used operationally for marine weather warnings and forecasts.

Abstract:

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON) Project uses artificial-intelligence software to implement heuristic models of coral reef ecosystem response to physical conditions. These models use if-then rules to recognize patterns in environmental data integrated in near real-time from multiple sources. One model is described to detect episodic, biologically significant fluxes acting upon coral reefs in the Florida Reef Tract. Data are gathered from in situ sensors and satellites for three sites near the reef crest: Sombrero Key in the Middle Keys, Molasses Reef in the Upper Keys, and Fowey Rocks off Miami. The model recognizes apparent circulation changes that may impact reef ecology. Criteria are in situ sea-temperature variability at near-tidal frequencies, wind velocity variability, and color-derived satellite chlorophyll-a point data. Model ecological forecasts (ecoforecasts) are verified using secondary data not input to the model, including satellite ocean-color imagery, radar-derived ocean surface currents, and divers reports. Events are characterized as being one of wind-driven upwelling; net transport of eutrophic water from outside the FRT; and interaction of Florida Current frontal features with reef topography, possibly modulated by internal wave-breaking. Multiple events are characterized in a 42-month period in 2005-2008.

Abstract: Assessment of coral reef ecosystems implies the acquisition of precision data and observations appropriate for answering questions about the response of multiple organisms to physical and other environmental stimuli. At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, we model marine organismal response to the environment in terms of a Stimulus/Response Index (S/RI). S/RI is computed using an approach called heuristic programming, from parameters bounded in subjective terms, which are defined numerically by comparing historical data with expert opinion, so as to match research and our understanding of the process in question. The modeled organismal response is called an ecological forecast, or ecoforecast, and relative possibility and intensity of the response is reflected in a rising S/RI. We have had success to date in modeling coral bleaching response to high sea temperatures plus high irradiance and other parameters. The approach requires, a) highly robust instrumentation (in situ, satellite, or other) deployed for long periods and producing high quality data in near real-time, b) a basic understanding of the process, behavior and/or physiology being modeled, and, c) a knowledge of approximate threshold levels for single or synergistically acting environmental parameters that elicit the phenomenon in question.

Abstract:

Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) images have had limited applications in near-shore and coastal environments due to inadequate spatial resolution, incorrect geocorrection, or cloud contamination. We have developed a practical approach to remove these errors using AVHRR and MODIS 1-km resolution data. The objective was to improve the accuracy of SST anomaly estimates in the Florida Keys and to provide the best quality (in particular, high temporal and spatial resolutions) SST data products for this region. After manual navigation of over 47,000 AVHRR images collected between September 1993 and December 2005, we implemented a cloud-filtering technique that differs from previously published image processing methods. The filter used a 12-year climatology and ±3 day running SST statistics to flag cloud-contaminated pixels. Comparison with concurrent (±0.5 hour) data from the SEAKEYS in situ stations in the Florida Keys showed near-zero bias errors (<0.05°C) in the weekly anomaly for SST anomalies between -3 and 3°C, with standard deviations <0.5°C. The cloud filter was implemented using IDL for near real-time processing of AVHRR and MODIS imagery. The improved SST products were used to detect SST anomalies and to estimate degree-heating-weeks (DHWs) to assess the potential for coral reef stress. The mean, anomaly, and DHW products are updated weekly and accessible on a web site. The SST data at specific geographical locations were also automatically ingested in near real-time into NOAAs Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON) web-based application to assist in management and decision-making through a novel expert system tool (G2) implemented at NOAA.

Abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has committed to integrating ocean data from a variety of sources into an Integrated Ocean Observing System, and to work towards operational ecological forecasting as part of its Ecosystem Approach to Management. Consistent with this, NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program has committed to integrating coral data from a variety of sources for the specific benefit of coral reef researchers and Marine Protected Area (MPA) managers; and NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, together with its NOAA and University of Miami partners, are contributing to this goal through their Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON) project. ICON provides Web-based software to integrate satellite, monitoring station (in situ), and radar data sources in near real-time; and utilizes an inference engine (artificial intelligence software) to provide ecological forecasts using some or all of these data. The capabilities of ICON software are currently being focused upon one area in particular, Molasses Reef in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, to provide proof-of-concept, and to provide a "discovery prototype" for consideration by the MPA managers assembled at the GCFI conference. Feedback to ICON developers from MPA managers--based upon their own specific management requirements and priorities, and knowledge of the prototype capabilities--is essential to set priorities and enable additional ICON software engineering specifically tailored to MPA managers' needs. Featured in the prototype are several levels of user access: layperson, researcher, site maintainer, MPA manager, and software developer colleague. Depending upon user access, information products can include recent and historical single-source and integrated data output, custom graphics output, and ecological forecasts for coral bleaching, coral spawning, upwelling, pollution impacts and larval drift.

Abstract:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON) has been operational since 2000 and works closely with most U.S. Government and many international environmental partners involved in coral reef research. The ICON program has pioneered the use of artificial intelligence techniques to assess near real-time data streams from environment sensor networks such as the SEAKEYS Network (Florida Keys), the Australia Institute of Marine Science Weather Network, NOAA's Coral Reef Ecosystem Division network in the Pacific, and its own Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON) of stations in the Caribbean. Besides its innovative approach to coral monitoring station deployments, the ICON program recently pioneered techniques for the near real-time integration of satellite, in situ, and radar data sources for purposes of ecological forecasting of such events as coral bleaching, coral spawning, upwelling, and other marine behavioral or physical oceanographic events. The ICON program has also ushered in the use of Pulse-Amplitude-Modulating fluorometry to measure near real-time physiological recording of response to environmental stress during coral bleaching, thus providing even better ecological forecasting capabilities through artificial intelligence and data integrative techniques. Herewith, we describe these techniques, along with a report on new coral calcification instrumentation augmenting the ICON Network sensor array.