Abstract:

The Argentine shelf and its shelf-break (southwestern Atlantic Ocean) are known for their high biological productivity, and as an important CO₂ sink region. However, many aspects of the carbonate system dynamics in the area, especially those related to the biological activity, deserve further study. Here we investigated the mechanisms affecting the carbonate system distributions, using in situ physical, chemical and biological observations collected along a section (COSTAL-AR) on the Northern Argentine Continental Shelf during two summer cruises in 2019. Our main goal was to evaluate the role of the microbial communities on the modulation of the carbonate system in the area. For that, we characterized (i) the distribution of the thermohaline properties, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, carbonate system (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon and high resolution underway CO₂ fugacity, fCO₂), dissolved inorganic nutrients, and (ii) the microbial communities (bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, and protozooplankton). Our results show that the COSTAL-AR section was likely an important CO₂ sink and presented high seawater fCO₂ spatial variability in both middle (272–430 μatm) and early (211–365 μatm) summer conditions. Phytoplankton played a key role in modulating the CO₂ uptake and carbonate system spatial variability during summer, especially in the middle and outer shelf. The main contribution to CO₂ fixation was given by small cells, since the microbial community was dominated by autotrophic picoplankton (2 distribution and biological processes was evident. These findings provide new insights on the connection between the biology and the carbonate system in this sparsely sampled area of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Abstract:

The years since 2000 have been a golden age in in situ ocean observing with the proliferation and organization of autonomous platforms such as surface drogued buoys and subsurface Argo profiling floats augmenting ship-based observations. Global time series of mean sea surface temperature and ocean heat content are routinely calculated based on data from these platforms, enhancing our understanding of the ocean’s role in the Earth’s climate system. Individual measurements of meteorological, sea surface and subsurface variables directly improve our understanding of the Earth System, weather forecasting, and climate projections. They also provide the data necessary for validating and calibrating satellite observations. Maintaining this ocean observing system has been a technological, logistical, and funding challenge. The global COVID-19 pandemic, which took hold in 2020, added strain to the maintenance of the observing system. A survey of the contributing components of the observing system illustrates the impacts of the pandemic from January 2020 through December 2021. The pandemic did not reduce the short-term geographic coverage (days to months) capabilities mainly due to the continuation of autonomous platform observations. In contrast, the pandemic caused critical loss to longer-term (years to decades) observations, greatly impairing the monitoring of such crucial variables as ocean carbon and the state of the deep ocean. So, while the observing system has held under the stress of the pandemic, work must be done to restore the interrupted replenishment of the autonomous components and plan for more resilient methods to support components of the system that rely on cruise-based measurements.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO₂ products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, E_FOS increased by 0.9% relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr⁻¹ (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and E_LUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr⁻¹, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr⁻¹ (40.7±3.2 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹). Also, for 2022, G_ATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr⁻¹ (2.18±0.1 ppm yr⁻¹; ppm denotes parts per million), S_OCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of −0.1 Gt C yr⁻¹ (i.e., total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in E_FOS relative to 2022 of +1.1% (0.0 % to 2.1%) globally and atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51% above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E_FOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E_LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹ (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO₂). Also, for 2021, G_ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN was 2.9  ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of −0.6 GtC yr⁻¹ (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E_FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9%) globally and atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO₂ sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ . For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries’ climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4% relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, for a total anthropogenic CO₂ emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹ (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO₂). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr⁻¹), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr⁻¹, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8% (4.2% to 5.4%) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b,a, 2016, 2015b,a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Abstract:

Understanding the ocean carbon sink and its future acidification-derived changes requires accurate and precise measurements with good spatiotemporal coverage. In addition, a deep knowledge of the thermodynamics of the seawater carbonate system is key to interconverting between measured and calculated variables. To gain insights into the remaining inconsistencies in the seawater carbonate system, we assess discrete water column measurements of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH measured with unpurified indicators, from hydrographic cruises in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans included in GLODAPv2.2020 (19,013 samples). An agreement of better than ± 3% between fCO₂ measured and calculated from DIC and pH is obtained for 94% of the compiled dataset, while when considering fCO₂ measured and calculated from DIC and TA, the agreement is better than ± 4% for 88% of the compiled dataset, with a poorer internal consistency for high-CO₂ waters. Inspecting all likely sources of uncertainty from measured and calculated variables, we conclude that the seawater carbonate system community needs to (i) further refine the thermodynamic model of the seawater carbonate system, especially K₂, including the impact of organic compounds and other acid-base systems on TA; (ii) update the standard operating procedures for the seawater carbonate system measurements following current technological and analytical advances, paying particular attention to the pH methodology that is the one that evolved the most; (iii) encourage measuring discrete water column fCO₂ to further check the internal consistency of the seawater carbonate system, especially given the new era of sensor-based seawater measurements; and (iv) develop seawater Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) for fCO₂ and pH together with seawater CRMs for TA and DIC over the range of values encountered in the global ocean. Our conclusions also suggest the need for a re-evaluation of the adjustments applied by GLODAPv2 to pH, which were based on DIC and TA consistency checks but not supported by fCO₂ and DIC consistency.

Abstract:

Oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (T_C) is the largest pool of carbon that substantially interacts with the atmosphere on human timescales. Oceanic T_C is increasing through uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂), and seawater pH is decreasing as a consequence. Both the exchange of CO₂ between the ocean and atmosphere and the pH response are governed by a set of parameters that interact through chemical equilibria, collectively known as the marine carbonate system. To investigate these processes, at least two of the marine carbonate system's parameters are typically measured – most commonly, two from T_C, total alkalinity (A_T), pH, and seawater CO₂ fugacity (; or its partial pressure, or its dry-air mole fraction,) – from which the remaining parameters can be calculated and the equilibrium state of seawater solved. Several software tools exist to carry out these calculations, but no fully functional and rigorously validated tool written in Python, a popular scientific programming language, was previously available. Here, we present PyCO2SYS, a Python package intended to fill this capability gap. We describe the elements of PyCO2SYS that have been inherited from the existing CO2SYS family of software and explain subsequent adjustments and improvements. For example, PyCO2SYS uses automatic differentiation to solve the marine carbonate system and calculate chemical buffer factors, ensuring that the effect of every modelled solute and reaction is accurately included in all its results. We validate PyCO2SYS with internal consistency tests and comparisons against other software, showing that PyCO2SYS produces results that are either virtually identical or different for known reasons, with the differences negligible for all practical purposes. We discuss insights that guided the development of PyCO2SYS: for example, the fact that the marine carbonate system cannot be unambiguously solved from certain pairs of parameters. Finally, we consider potential future developments to PyCO2SYS and discuss the outlook for this and other software for solving the marine carbonate system. The code for PyCO2SYS is distributed via GitHub (https://github.com/mvdh7/PyCO2SYS, last access: 23 December 2021) under the GNU General Public License v3, archived on Zenodo (Humphreys et al., 2021), and documented online (https://pyco2sys.readthedocs.io/en/latest/, last access: 23 December 2021).

Abstract:

Effective data management plays a key role in oceanographic research as cruise-based data, collected from different laboratories and expeditions, are commonly compiled to investigate regional to global oceanographic processes. Here we describe new and updated best practice data standards for discrete chemical oceanographic observations, specifically those dealing with column header abbreviations, quality control flags, missing value indicators, and standardized calculation of certain properties. These data standards have been developed with the goals of improving the current practices of the scientific community and promoting their international usage. These guidelines are intended to standardize data files for data sharing and submission into permanent archives. They will facilitate future quality control and synthesis efforts and lead to better data interpretation. In turn, this will promote research in ocean biogeochemistry, such as studies of carbon cycling and ocean acidification, on regional to global scales. These best practice standards are not mandatory. Agencies, institutes, universities, or research vessels can continue using different data standards if it is important for them to maintain historical consistency. However, it is hoped that they will be adopted as widely as possible to facilitate consistency and to achieve the goals stated above.

Abstract:

Ocean acidification (OA) has resulted in global-scale changes in ocean chemistry, which can disturb marine organisms and ecosystems. Despite its extensively populated coastline, many marine-dependent communities, and valuable economies, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) remains a relatively understudied region with respect to acidification. In general, the warm waters of the GOM are better buffered from acidification compared to higher latitude seas, yet long-term acidification has been documented in several GOM regions. OA within the GOM is recognized as spatially variable, particularly within the coastal zone where numerous physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to carbonate chemistry dynamics. The historical progression of OA within the entire GOM is difficult to assess because only a few dedicated long-term monitoring sites have recently been established, and full-water column observations are limited. However, environmental drivers on smaller scales that affect GOM acidification were found to include freshwater, nutrient, and carbonate discharge from large rivers; ocean warming, circulation and residence times; and episodic extreme weather events. GOM marine ecosystems provide essential services, including coastline protection and carbon dioxide removal, and habitats for many marine species that are economically and ecologically important. However, organismal and ecosystem responses to OA are not well constrained for the GOM due to a lack of studies examining the specific effects of OA on regionally relevant species under contemporary and projected conditions. Tackling the vast number of remaining scientific unknowns in this region can be coordinated through regional capacity networks, such as the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN), working to achieve a system-wide understanding of Gulf OA and its impacts. Here we synthesize the current peer-reviewed literature on GOM acidification across the ocean-estuarine continuum and identify critical knowledge, research, and monitoring gaps that limit our current understanding of environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts from acidification.

Abstract:

The fugacity or partial pressure of CO₂ in surface water (fCO_2w) is a key parameter to determine air-sea CO₂ fluxes and the evolution of ocean acidification. Despite its importance some key physical chemical characteristics are not fully resolved, notably its dependence on temperature. The fCO_2w is mostly measured by autonomous underway systems near in situ sea surface temperature (SST). Subsurface measurements are commonly carried out on individual (discrete) samples at a fixed temperature, normally 20 °C. Here, the underway system observations are compared with co-located discrete observations to determine the consistency of these types of measurements. The co-located discrete fCO_2w at 20 °C and underway fCO_2w measurements at SST are used to infer the temperature dependence of CO₂. In addition, calculated fCO_2w from total alkalinity (TA) and total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) are compared with the underway and discrete fCO_2w measurements. For 21 cruises spanning the major ocean basins from 1992 to 2020 a temperature dependence of 4.13 ± 0.01% °C⁻¹ is determined in close agreement with a widely used previous empirical estimate of 4.23 ± 0.02% °C⁻¹ for North Atlantic surface water. The temperature dependency of calculated fCO_2w from TA and DIC using recommended constants is 4.10% °C⁻¹ for 17 cruises where there are co-located measurements of fCO_2w, TA and DIC.

Abstract:

Internally consistent, quality-controlled (QC) data products play an important role in promoting regional-to-global research efforts to understand societal vulnerabilities to ocean acidification (OA). However, there are currently no such data products for the coastal ocean, where most of the OA-susceptible commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture industries are located. In this collaborative effort, we compiled, quality-controlled, and synthesized 2 decades of discrete measurements of inorganic carbon system parameters, oxygen, and nutrient chemistry data from the North American continental shelves to generate a data product called the Coastal Ocean Data Analysis Product in North America (CODAP-NA). There are few deep-water (> 1500 m) sampling locations in the current data product. As a result, crossover analyses, which rely on comparisons between measurements on different cruises in the stable deep ocean, could not form the basis for cruise-to-cruise adjustments. For this reason, care was taken in the selection of data sets to include in this initial release of CODAP-NA, and only data sets from laboratories with known quality assurance practices were included. New consistency checks and outlier detections were used to QC the data. Future releases of this CODAP-NA product will use this core data product as the basis for cruise-to-cruise comparisons. We worked closely with the investigators who collected and measured these data during the QC process. This version (v2021) of the CODAP-NA is comprised of 3391 oceanographic profiles from 61 research cruises covering all continental shelves of North America, from Alaska to Mexico in the west and from Canada to the Caribbean in the east. Data for 14 variables (temperature; salinity; dissolved oxygen content; dissolved inorganic carbon content; total alkalinity; pH on total scale; carbonate ion content; fugacity of carbon dioxide; and substance contents of silicate, phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, nitrate plus nitrite, and ammonium) have been subjected to extensive QC. CODAP-NA is available as a merged data product (Excel, CSV, MATLAB, and NetCDF; https://doi.org/10.25921/531n-c230, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0219960.html, last access: 15 May 2021) (Jiang et al., 2021a). The original cruise data have also been updated with data providers' consent and summarized in a table with links to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) archives (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-acidification-data-stewardship-oads/synthesis/NAcruises.html).

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) and terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), E_FOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E_LUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹. For the same decade, G_ATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN 2.5 ±  0.6 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹, with a budget imbalance B_IM of −0.1 GtC yr⁻¹ indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in E_FOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ when cement carbonation sink is included), and E_LUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, for total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹ (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO₂). Also for 2019, G_ATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in E_FOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020)..

Abstract:

A high-quality dataset of surface water fugacity of CO₂ (fCO_2w), consisting of over a million observations, and derived products are presented for the northern Caribbean Sea, covering the time span from 2002 through 2018. Prior to installation of automated pCO₂ systems on cruise ships of Royal Caribbean International and subsidiaries, very limited surface water carbon data were available in this region. With this observational program, the northern Caribbean Sea has now become one of the best-sampled regions for pCO₂ of the world ocean. The dataset and derived quantities are binned and averaged on a 1° monthly grid and are available at http://accession.nodc.noaa.gov/0207749 (last access: 30 June 2020) (https://doi.org/10.25921/2swk-9w56; Wanninkhof et al., 2019a). The derived quantities include total alkalinity (TA), acidity (pH), aragonite saturation state (Ω_Ar), and air-sea CO₂ flux and cover the region from 15–28°N and 88–62°W. The gridded data and products are used for determination of status and trends of ocean acidification, for quantifying air-sea CO₂ fluxes, and for ground-truthing models. Methodologies to derive the TA, pH, and Ω_Ar and to calculate the fluxes from fCO_2w temperature and salinity are described.

Abstract:

Surface seawater partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) is a critical parameter in the quantification of air-sea CO₂ flux, which further plays an important role in quantifying the global carbon budget and understanding ocean acidification. Yet, the remote estimation of pCO₂ in coastal waters (under influences of multiple processes) has been difficult due to complex relationships between environmental variables and surface pCO₂. To date there is no unified model to remotely estimate surface pCO₂ in oceanic regions that are dominated by different oceanic processes. In our study area, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), this challenge is addressed through the evaluation of different approaches, including multi-linear regression (MLR), multi-nonlinear regression (MNR), principle component regression (PCR), decision tree, supporting vector machines (SVMs), multilayer perceptron neural network (MPNN), and random forest based regression ensemble (RFRE). After modeling, validation, and extensive tests using independent cruise datasets, the RFRE model proved to be the best approach. The RFRE model was trained using data comprised of extensive pCO₂ datasets (collected over 16 years by many groups) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) estimated sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), surface chlorophyll concentration (Chl), and diffuse attenuation of downwelling irradiance (Kd). This RFRE-based pCO₂ model allows for the estimation of surface pCO₂ from satellites with a spatial resolution of ~1 km. It showed an overall performance of a root mean square difference (RMSD) of 9.1 μatm, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.95, a mean bias (MB) of −0.03 μatm, a mean ratio (MR) of 1.00, an unbiased percentage difference (UPD) of 0.07%, and a mean ratio difference (MRD) of 0.12% for pCO₂ ranging between 145 and 550 μatm. The model, with its original parameterization, has been tested with independent datasets collected over the entire GOM, with satisfactory performance in each case (RMSD of ≤~10 μatm for open GOM waters and RMSD of ≤~25 μatm for coastal and river-dominated waters). The sensitivity of the RFRE-based pCO₂ model to uncertainties of each input environmental variable was also thoroughly examined. The results showed that all induced uncertainties were close to, or within, the uncertainty of the model itself with higher sensitivity to uncertainties in SST and SSS than to uncertainties in Chl and Kd. The extensive validation, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis indicate the robustness of the RFRE model in estimating surface pCO₂ for the range of 145–550 μatm in most GOM waters. The RFRE model approach was applied to the Gulf of Maine (a contrasting oceanic region to GOM), with local model training. The results showed significant improvement over other models suggesting that the RFRE may serve as a robust approach for other regions once sufficient field-measured pCO₂ data are available for model training.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) and terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E_FF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, E_LUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.3±0.01 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr⁻¹, with a budget imbalance B_IM of 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹ indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E_FF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, reaching 10 GtC yr⁻¹ for the first time in history, E_LUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, for total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr⁻¹ (42.5±3.3 GtCO₂). Also for 2018, G_ATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr⁻¹ (2.4±0.1 ppm yr⁻¹), S_OCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E_FF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO₂ variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Abstract:

The oceans are the largest sustained sink of anthropogenic carbon with a flux into the ocean of about 2.4 10¹⁵ grams, or 2.4 gigatons, of carbon annually, thereby partially mitigating the rapid increase of this climate-forcing gas into the atmosphere. To provide meaningful projections of future atmospheric CO₂ levels and surface oceanic CO₂ concentrations, we must constrain the flux of CO₂ across the air-water interface. An important component of this effort is to obtain more systematic observations of CO₂ in the ocean by installing autonomous systems—underway pCO₂ analyzers—on ships of opportunity. The purpose of this technical report is to provide the necessary information required to perform such an installation. The information it contains pertains specifically to the installation of the system built by General Oceanics, Inc. in Miami, Florida. However, most of the ­instructions and issues discussed should apply to any type of autonomous system.

Abstract:

The Surface Ocean CO₂ NETwork (SOCONET) and atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) CO₂ measurements from ships and buoys focus on the operational aspects of measurements of CO₂ in both the ocean surface and atmospheric MBLs. The goal is to provide accurate pCO₂ data to within 2 micro atmosphere (μatm) for surface ocean and 0.2 parts per million (ppm) for MBL measurements following rigorous best practices, calibration and intercomparison procedures. Platforms and data will be tracked in near real-time and final quality-controlled data will be provided to the community within a year. The network, involving partners worldwide, will aid in production of important products such as maps of monthly resolved surface ocean CO₂ and air-sea CO₂ flux measurements. These products and other derivatives using surface ocean and MBL CO₂ data, such as surface ocean pH maps and MBL CO₂ maps, will be of high value for policy assessments and socio-economic decisions regarding the role of the ocean in sequestering anthropogenic CO₂ and how this uptake is impacting ocean health by ocean acidification. SOCONET has an open ocean emphasis but will work with regional (coastal) networks. It will liaise with intergovernmental science organizations such as Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), and the joint committee for and ocean and marine meteorology (JCOMM). Here we describe the details of this emerging network and its proposed operations and practices.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ emissions (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) and terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), E_FF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, E_LUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr⁻¹, with a budget imbalance B_IM of 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in E_FF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹. Also for 2017, E_LUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr⁻¹, with a B_IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E_FF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr⁻¹ persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO₂ fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO₂ flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO₂ variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a,b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) and terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B_IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), E_FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, E_LUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹, with a budget imbalance B_IM of 0.6 GtC yr⁻¹ indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E_FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹. Also for 2016, E_LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr⁻¹, with a small B_IM of −0.3 GtC. G_ATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S_LAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in E_FF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Abstract:

This paper presents the SURATLANT data set (SURveillance ATLANTique). It consists of individual data of temperature, salinity, parameters of the carbonate system, nutrients, and water stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) collected mostly from ships of opportunity since 1993 along transects between Iceland and Newfoundland (https://doi.org/10.17882/54517). We discuss how the data are validated and qualified, their accuracy, and the overall characteristics of the data set. The data are used to reconstruct seasonal cycles and interannual anomalies, in particular of sea surface salinity (SSS); inorganic nutrients; dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC); and its isotopic composition δ¹³C_DIC, total alkalinity (A_t), and water isotope concentrations. Derived parameters such as fCO₂ and pH are also estimated. The relation between salinity and A_t is estimated from these data to investigate the possibility to replace missing A_t when estimating other parameters of the carbonate system. When examining the average seasonal cycle in the deep ocean, in both these data with other climatologies, we find a period of small seasonal change between January and late April. On the Newfoundland shelf and continental slope, changes related with spring stratification and blooms occur earlier. The data were collected in a period of multi-decennial variability associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal variability with warming between 1994 and 2004–2007, and with the recent cooling having peaked in 2014–2016. We also observe strong salinification in 2004–2009 and fresher waters in 1994–1995 as well as since 2010 south of 54°N and in 2016–2017 north of 54°N. Indication of multi-decadal variability is also suggested by other variables, such as phosphate or DIC, but cannot be well resolved seasonally with the discrete sampling and in the presence of interannual variability. As a whole, over the 24 years, the ocean fCO₂ trend (+1.9µatmyr⁻¹) is close to the atmospheric trend and associated with an increase in DIC (+0.77µmolkg⁻¹yr⁻¹). The data also revealed a canonical pH decrease of −0.0021yr⁻¹. There is also a decrease in δ¹³C_DIC between 2005 and 2017 (in winter, −0.014‰yr⁻¹, but larger in summer, −0.042‰yr⁻¹), suggesting a significant anthropogenic carbon signal at play together with other processes (mixing, biological activity).

Abstract:

The combined effects of anthropogenic and biological CO₂ inputs may lead to more rapid acidification in coastal waters compared to the open ocean. It is less clear, however, how redox reactions would contribute to acidification. Here we report estuarine acidification dynamics based on oxygen, hydrogen sulfide (H₂S), pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity data from the Chesapeake Bay, where anthropogenic nutrient inputs have led to eutrophication, hypoxia and anoxia, and low pH. We show that a pH minimum occurs in mid-depths where acids are generated as a result of H₂S oxidation in waters mixed upward from the anoxic depths. Our analyses also suggest a large synergistic effect from river–ocean mixing, global and local atmospheric CO₂ uptake, and CO₂ and acid production from respiration and other redox reactions. Together they lead to a poor acid buffering capacity, severe acidification, and increased carbonate mineral dissolution in the USA’s largest estuary.

Abstract:

The equilibria and rates of reactions of trace metals in natural waters are affected by their speciation or the form of the metal in the solution phase. Many workers have shown, for example, that biological uptake (Anderson and Morel, 1982), toxicity (Sunda and Ferguson, 1983), as well as solubility (Millero et al., 1995; Liu and Millero, 1999) are affected by the speciation. For example, Fe(II) and Mn(II) are biologically available for marine organisms, while Fe(III) and Mn(IV) are normally not available. The speciation of metals also affects the rates of oxidation (Millero, 1985, 1994; Sharma and Millero, 1989; Vazquez et al., 1989) and reduction (Millero et al., 1991) of metals in natural waters. The ionic interactions of metals are controlled by interactions with inorganic (Cl⁻, OH⁻, CO₃²⁻, etc.) and organic ligands (e.g., fulvic and humic acids). The speciation of metals is also affected by the oxidation potential (Eh) and the pH in the solution. In this paper, we have developed a Pitzer Model (Pitzer, 1973, 1991) that can be used to determine the speciation of trace metals in seawater and other natural waters. It is based upon the Miami Pitzer Model (Millero and Pierrot, 1998) that has been shown to predict reliable activity coefficients for the major components of seawater. The computer code (Pierrot, 2002) for these calculations is described in detail in this paper. It has been used in an earlier paper (Millero and Pierrot, 2002) and more recently used to examine the effect of pH on the speciation of metals in seawater (Millero et al., 2009).

Abstract:

In anoxic/hypoxic waters, the presence of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and ammonia (NH₃) influences results of the computation of parameters in the ocean carbonate system. To evaluate their influences, H₂S and NH₃ contributions to total alkalinity are added to CO2SYS, which is a most often used publicly available software package that calculates oceanic carbonate parameters. We discuss how these two metabolites affect the carbonate parameters and compare the differences in total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pH, fCO₂, and aragonite saturation state between the CO2SYS packages with and without considering the acid-base systems of H₂S and NH₃. The results show that, without considering these two acid-base systems, even low to moderate concentrations (e.g., 2‑20 μmol kg⁻¹) of these metabolites cause errors in the calculated carbonate parameters larger than the accuracies of the best measurements, and thus, it is important to include contributions from these metabolites. The outputs from this updated version of CO2SYS agree well with outputs from AquaEnv, which is the only other computation program for the ocean carbonate system that includes the acid-base systems of H₂S and NH₃. Users are encouraged to use the updated version of CO2SYS to calculate carbonate parameters in anoxic/hypoxic waters.

Abstract:

The Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO₂ (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO₂ values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.6 million fCO₂ values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO₂ values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO₂ has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) “living data” publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014). Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here: doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.SOCAT_V3_GRID.

Abstract:

The global carbon budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.

Abstract:

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S_OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO₂ measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO₂, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005-2014), E_FF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, E_LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For the year 2014 alone, E_FF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2% yr⁻¹ that took place during 2005-2014. Also, for 2014, E_LUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. G_ATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005-2014), reflecting a larger S_LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E_FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6% [range of −1.6 to +0.5], based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of E_FF and assumed constant E_LUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO₂ will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO₂) for 1870-2015, about 75% from E_FF and 25% from E_LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Abstract:

The Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT), an activity of the international marine carbon research community, provides access to synthesis and gridded fCO₂ (fugacity of carbon dioxide) products for the surface oceans. Version 2 of SOCAT is an update of the previous release (version 1) with more data (increased from 6.3 million to 10.1 million surface water fCO₂ values) and extended data coverage (from 1968–2007 to 1968–2011). The quality control criteria, while identical in both versions, have been applied more strictly in version 2 than in version 1. The SOCAT website (http://www.socat.info/) has links to quality control comments, metadata, individual data set files, and synthesis and gridded data products. Interactive online tools allow visitors to explore the richness of the data. Applications of SOCAT include process studies, quantification of the ocean carbon sink, and its spatial, seasonal, year-to-year and longer term variation, as well as initialization or validation of ocean carbon models and coupled climate-carbon models.

Abstract:

A well-documented, publicly available global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO₂) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO₂, which had been subject to quality control (QC). Many additional CO₂ data, not yet made public via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from data originators, public websites, and other data centers. All data were put in a uniform format following a strict protocol. Quality control was carried out according to clearly-defined criteria. Regional specialists performed the quality control, using state-of-the-art web-based tools, specially developed for accomplishing this global team effort. SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO₂ data points from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968-2007). Three types of data products are available: individual cruise files, a merged complete data set, and gridded products. With the rapid expansion of marine CO₂ data collection and the importance of quantifying net global oceanic CO₂ uptake and its changes, sustained data synthesis and data access are priorities.

Abstract:

As a response to public demand for a well-documented, quality controlled, publicly available, global surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO₂) data set, the international marine carbon science community developed the Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT). The first SOCAT product is a collection of 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO₂ data from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968-2007). The SOCAT gridded data presented here is the second data product to come from the SOCAT project. Recognizing that some groups may have trouble working with millions of measurements, the SOCAT gridded product was generated to provide a robust, regularly spaced CO₂ fugacity (fCO₂) product with minimal spatial and temporal interpolation, which should be easier to work with for many applications. Gridded SOCAT is rich with information that has not been fully explored yet (e.g., regional differences in the seasonal cycles), but also contains biases and limitations that the user needs to recognize and address (e.g., local influences on values in some coastal regions).

Abstract: It has been predicted that the Arctic Ocean will sequester much greater amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere as a result of sea ice melt and increasing primary productivity. However, this prediction was made on the basis of observations from either highly productive ocean margins or ice-covered basins before the recent major ice retreat. We report here a high-resolution survey of sea-surface CO₂ concentration across the Canada Basin, showing a great increase relative to earlier observations. Rapid CO₂ invasion from the atmosphere and low biological CO₂ drawdown are the main causes for the higher CO₂, which also acts as a barrier to further CO₂ invasion. Contrary to the current view, we predict that the Arctic Ocean basin will not become a large atmospheric CO₂ sink under ice-free conditions.

Abstract:

Recent studies based on ocean and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) observations, suggesting that the ocean carbon uptake has been reduced, may help explain the increase in the fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions that remain in the atmosphere. Is it a response to climate change or a signal of ocean natural variability or both? Regional process analyses are needed to follow the ocean carbon uptake and to enable better attributions of the observed changes. Here, we describe the evolution of the surface ocean CO₂fugacity (fCO₂^oc) over the period 1993–2008 in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). This analysis is based primarily on observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) conducted at different seasons in the NASPG between Iceland and Canada. The fCO₂^oc trends based on DIC and TA data are also compared with direct fCO₂ measurements obtained between 2003 and 2007 in the same region. During winters 1993–2003, the fCO₂^oc growth rate was 3.7 (±0.6) μatm yr⁻¹, higher than in the atmosphere, 1.8 (±0.1) μatm yr⁻¹. This translates to a reduction of the ocean carbon uptake primarily explained by sea surface warming, up to 0.24 (±0.04) °C yr⁻¹. This warming is a consequence of advection of warm water northward from the North Atlantic into the Irminger basin, which occurred as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index moved into a negative phase in winter 1995/1996. In winter 2001–2008, the fCO₂^oc rise was particularly fast, between 5.8 (±1.1) and 7.2 (±1.3) μatm yr⁻¹ depending on the region, more than twice the atmospheric growth rate of 2.1 (±0.2) μatm yr⁻¹, and in the winter of 2007–2008 the area was supersaturated with CO₂. As opposed to the 1990s, this appears to be almost entirely due to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, the combination of increasing DIC and decreasing of TA. The rapidfCO₂^oc increase was not only driven by regional uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ but was also likely controlled by a recent increase in convective processes-vertical mixing in the NASPG and cannot be directly associated with NAO variability. The fCO₂^oc increase observed in 2001–2008 leads to a significant drop in pH of −0.069 (±0.007) decade⁻¹.

Abstract: Water column data of carbon and carbon-relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical parameters from 188 cruises in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas, Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been retrieved and merged in a new data base: the CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic) Project. These data have gone through rigorous quality control (QC) procedures so as to improve the quality and consistency of the data as much as possible. Secondary quality control, which involved objective study of data in order to quantify systematic differences in the reported values, was performed for the pertinent parameters in the CARINA data base. Systematic biases in the data have been tentatively corrected in the data products. The products are three merged data files with measured, adjusted and interpolated data of all cruises for each of the three CARINA regions (Arctic Mediterranean Seas, Atlantic and Southern Ocean). Ninety-eight cruises were conducted in the Atlantic defined as the region south of the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland Ridge and north of about 30°S. Here we report the details of the secondary QC which was done on the total dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO₂) data and the adjustments that were applied to yield the final data product in the Atlantic. Procedures of quality control, including crossover analysis between stations and inversion analysis of all crossover data, are briefly described. Adjustments were applied to TCO₂ measurements for 17 of the cruises in the Atlantic Ocean region. With these adjustments, the CARINA database is consistent both internally as well as with GLODAP data, an oceanographic data set based on the WOCE Hydrographic Program in the 1990s, and is now suitable for accurate assessments of, for example, regional oceanic carbon inventories, uptake rates, and model validation.

Abstract: Water column data of carbon and carbon-relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical parameters from 188 previously non-publicly available cruise data sets in the Arctic Mediterranean Seas, Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been retrieved and merged into a new database: CARINA (CARbon dioxide IN the Atlantic Ocean). The data have gone through rigorous quality control procedures to assure the highest possible quality and consistency. The data for the pertinent parameters in the CARINA database were objectively examined in order to quantify systematic differences in the reported values, i.e., secondary quality control. Systematic biases found in the data have been corrected in the three data products: merged data files with measured, calculated, and interpolated data for each of the three CARINA regions, i.e., the Arctic Mediterranean Seas, the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. These products have been corrected to be internally consistent. Ninety-eight of the cruises in the CARINA database were conducted in the Atlantic Ocean, defined here as the region south of the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland Ridge and north of about 30°S. Here we present an overview of the Atlantic Ocean synthesis of the CARINA data and the adjustments that were applied to the data product. We also report the details of the secondary QC (Quality Control) for salinity for this data set. Procedures of quality control, including crossover analysis between stations and inversion analysis of all crossover data, are briefly described. Adjustments to salinity measurements were applied to the data from 10 cruises in the Atlantic Ocean region. Based on our analysis we estimate the internal consistency of the CARINA-ATL salinity data to be 4.1 ppm. With these adjustments the CARINA data products are consistent both internally as well as with GLODAP data, an oceanographic data set based on the World Hydrographic Program in the 1990s, and is now suitable for accurate assessments of, for example, oceanic carbon inventories and uptake rates and for model validation.

Abstract:

In order to facilitate the collection of high quality and uniform surface water pCO₂ data, an underway pCO₂ instrument has been designed based on community input and is now commercially available. Along with instrumentation, agreements were reached on data reduction and quality control that can be easily applied to data from these systems by using custom-made freeware. This new automated underway pCO₂ measuring system is designed to be accurate to within 0.1 μatm for atmospheric pCO₂ measurements and to within 2 µatm for seawater pCO₂, targeted by the scientific community to constrain the regional air-sea CO₂ fluxes to 0.2 Pg C year^-1. The procedure to properly reduce the underway pCO₂ data and perform the steps necessary for calculation of the fugacity of CO₂ from the measurements is described. This system is now widely used by the scientific community on many different types of ships. Combined with the recommended data-reduction procedures, it will facilitate producing data sets that will significantly decrease the uncertainty currently present in estimates of air-sea CO₂ fluxes.

Abstract:

We examine observations from 1990 to 2006 from four voluntary observing ships and two time-series stations in the North Atlantic, fitting a sinusoidal annual cycle and linear year-on-year trend at all locations where there are sufficient data. Results show that in the subtropical regions, sea-surface fCO₂ has closely followed the increasing trend in atmospheric fCO₂. In contrast, farther north, sea-surface fCO₂ has increased faster than fCO₂ in the atmosphere. The resulting ΔfCO₂, driving air-sea flux of CO₂, has therefore decreased in the North Atlantic, particularly at higher latitudes, as has the annual mean air-sea flux. Several underlying causes may have led to the observed changes in sea-surface fCO₂. Low-frequency modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, lead to changes in the sea-surface temperature, in sea-surface circulation and in vertical mixing, affecting sea-surface fCO₂ through biogeochemical processes. A comparison with measurements covering a longer time period shows that the sea-surface fCO₂ rise has accelerated since 1990 in the northern North Atlantic.

Abstract:

A number of workers have recently shown that the thermodynamic constants for the dissociation of carbonic acid in seawater of Mehrbach et al. are more reliable than measurements made on artificial seawater. These studies have largely been confined to looking at the internal consistency of measurements of total alkalinity (TA), total inorganic carbon dioxide (TCO₂) and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO₂). In this paper, we have examined the field measurements of pH, fCO₂, TCO₂, and TA on surface and deep waters from the Atlantic, Indian, Southern, and Pacific oceans to determine the pK₁, pK₂, and pK₂-pK₁. These calculations are possible due to the high precision and accuracy of the field measurements. The values of pK₂ and pK₂-pK₁ over a wide range of temperatures (-1.6-38°C) are in good agreement (within ±0.005) with the results of Mehrbach et al. The measured values of pK₁ at 4°C and 20°C are in reasonable agreement (within ±0.01) with all the constants determined in laboratory studies. These results indicate, as suggested by internal consistency tests, that the directly measured values of pK₁+pK₂ of Mehrbach et al. on real seawater are more reliable than the values determined for artificial seawater. It also indicates that the large differences of pK₂-pK₁ (0.05 at 20°C) in real and artificial seawater determined by different investigators are mainly due to differences in pK₂. These differences may be related to the interactions of boric acid with the carbonate ion. The values of pK₂-pK₁ determined from the laboratory measurements of Lee et al. and Lueker et al. at low fCO₂ agree with the field-derived data to ±0.016 from 5°C to 25°C. The values of pK₂-pK₁ decrease as the fCO₂ or TCO₂ increases. This effect is largely related to changes in the pK₂ as a function of fCO₂ or TCO₂. The values of fCO₂ calculated from an input of TA and TCO₂, which require reliable values of pK₂-pK₁, also vary with fCO₂. The field data at 20°C has been used to determine the effect of changes of TCO₂ on pK₂ giving an empirical relationship: pK₂^TCO2 = pK₂-1.6 x 10^-4 (TCO₂-2050) which is valid at TCO₂ > 2050 µmol kg^-1. This assumes that the other dissociation constants such as K_B for boric acid are not affected by changes in TCO₂. The slope is in reasonable agreement with the laboratory studies of Lee et al. and Lueker et al. (-1.2 x 10^-4 to -1.9 x 10^-4). This equation eliminates the dependence of the calculated fCO₂ on the level of fCO₂ or TCO₂ in ocean waters (σ = 29.7 µatm in fCO₂). An input of pH and TCO₂ yields values of fCO₂ and TA that are in good agreement with the measured values (±22.3 µatm in fCO₂ and ±4.3 µmol kg^-1 in TA). The cause of the decrease in pK₂ at high fCO₂ is presently unknown. The observed inconsistencies between the measured and computed fCO₂ values may be accounted for by adding the effect of organic acid (~8 µmol kg^-1) to the interpretation of the TA. Further studies are needed to elucidate the chemical reactions responsible for this effect.