Azimuthal Distribution of Deep Convection, Environmental Factors, and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification: A Perspective from HWRF Ensemble Forecasts of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Leighton, H., Gopalakrishnan, S., Zhang, J. A., Rogers, R. F., Zhang, Z., & Tallapragada, V. (2018). Azimuthal distribution of deep convection, environmental factors, and tropical cyclone rapid intensification: A perspective from HWRF ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Edouard (2014). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(1), 275-295.
Abstract: Forecasts from the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF)-based ensemble prediction system for Hurricane Edouard (2014) are analyzed to study the differences in both the tropical cyclone inner-core structure and large-scale environment between rapidly intensifying (RI) and non intensifying (NI) ensemble members. An analysis of the inner-core structure reveals that as deep convection wraps around from the downshear side of the storm to the upshear-left quadrant for RI members, vortex tilt and asymmetry reduce rapidly, and rapid intensification occurs…