Ocean Conditions and the Intensification of Three Major Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017

Domingues, R., Le Hénaff, M., Halliwell, G., Zhang, J. A., Bringas, F., Chardon, P., … & Goni, G. (2021). Ocean Conditions and the Intensification of Three Major Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017. Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1265-1286.

Major Atlantic hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria of 2017 reached their peak intensity in September while traveling over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where both atmospheric and ocean conditions were favorable for intensification. In situ and satellite ocean observations revealed that conditions in these areas exhibited (i) sea surface temperatures above 28°C, (ii) upper-ocean heat content above 60 kJ cm−2, and (iii) the presence of low-salinity barrier layers associated with a larger-than-usual extension of the Amazon and Orinoco riverine plumes. Proof-of-concept coupled ocean–hurricane numerical model experiments demonstrated that the accurate representation of such ocean conditions led to an improvement in the simulated intensity of Hurricane Maria for the 3 days preceding landfall in Puerto Rico, when compared to an experiment without the assimilation of ocean observations…..

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