Back to Hurricane Track Forecasting projects
|
Back to Main Projects Page
Synoptic Surveillance and Targeting Group
Team Leader: Sim Aberson (HRD)
Team Members:
Sharanya Majumdar (UM/RSMAS) |:|
RSMAS project page
Chun-Chieh Wu (NTU)
Po-Hsuing Lin (NTU)
Carolyn Reynolds (NRL)
James Doyle (NRL)
Roberto Buizza (ECMWF)
Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA)
Tetsuo Nakazawa (JMA)
Objective:
Improvement of tropical cyclone forecasts through improvement
of initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models by:
- targeting observations of opportunity such as dropwindsondes to
those regions most likely to positively impact the specific forecast
- improve the assimilation of targeted observations into numerical
models.
- provide improved environmental data sets for other research
projects.
Methods:
This will be accomplished by, in all available basins:
- conducting Observing Systems Experiments (OSEs)
- obtaining over-sampled data sets to test targeting strategies
- working to improve the assimilation of observations into current
models
- testing next-generation data assimilation techniques
(eg. ETKF)
on these data sets.
- experimenting with various data resolutions in time and space
- automating the current operational procedures
Accomplishments:
- Transition of targeting and flight-track drawing to operations complete.
- Assessment of
DOTSTAR surveillance missions in the Taiwan Region complete.
- Automated flight track drawing software transitioned to operations
and in use in Japan.
- Testing of singular vector and ensemble-based targeting strategies
versus a uniform sampling strategy complete.
- Assimilation of dropwindsonde humidity into NOAA operational models
transitioned to operations.
References:
Aberson, S.D., and J.L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on hurricane track and
intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the
first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. Bull.
Amer. Met. Soc., 80, 421-428.
- Aberson, S.D., 2002: Two years of operational hurricane synoptic
surveillance. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1101-1110.
- Aberson, S.D., 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational
tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
131, 1613-1628.
- Wu, C.-C., P.-H. Lin, S.D. Aberson, T.-C. Yeh, W.-P. Huang, K.-H. Chou,
J.-S. Hong, G.-C. Lu, C.-T. Fong, K.-C. Hsu, I.-I. Lin, P.-L. Lin, and
C.-H. Liu, 2005: Dropsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the
Taiwan region (DOTSTAR): An overview. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.,
86, 787-790.
- Aberson, S.D., and B. Etherton, 2006: Targeting and data assimilation
studies during Hurricane Humberto (2001). J. Atmos. Sci.,
63, 175-186.
- Majumdar, S. J., S.D. Aberson, C. H. Buizza, M.S. Peng, and C. A.
Reynolds, 2006: A comparison of Adaptive Observing Guidance for Atlantic
Tropical Cyclones, Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2354-2372.
- Reynolds, C.A., M.S. Peng, S.J. Majumdar, S.D. Aberson, C.H. Bishop, and
R. Buizza, 2007: Interpretation of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic
tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 4006-4029.
- Wu, C.-C., K.-H. Chou, P.-S. Lin, S.D. Aberson, M.S. Peng, and T.
Nakazawa, 2007: The impact of dropsonde data on typhoon track forecasting
in DOTSTAR. Wea. Forecast., 22, 1157-1176.
- Aberson, S.D., 2009: Large forecast degradations due to synoptic
surveillance during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 136, 3138-3150.
- Aberson, S. D., 2010: Ten years of hurricane synoptic surveillance
(1997-2006). Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1536-1549.
Back to Hurricane Track Forecasting projects
|
Back to Main Projects Page
Last modified: 5/30/2011
|