Hurricane Structure and Intensity |
Strategic Element: Short-Term Warnings
Principal Investigator: Frank D. Marks
Objective: Basic physical understanding and forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. Observational studies with aircraft, radar and other remote sensors. Forecasting and process models.
Narrative: On the night of 3-4 October 1995, hurricane Opal accelerated toward the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. As the storm's motion increased, so did its intensity--from category 3 to category 4 (based on wind) in 18 h. Similarly, Hurricane Andrew intensified nearly to category 5 in 36 hours. "Rapid deepening" is almost invariably part of the process that makes major hurricanes--often so quickly that events outrun forecasts. Passage over unusually warm water, the Gulf Stream for example, and interaction with atmospheric features such as midlatitude troughs or upper lows are clearly factors. Although we know something about the physical processes that control intensity change in general terms, we do not understand them well enough to make predictions that outperform the simplest statistical extrapolations.
Meteorologists need to invest in
deeper physical understanding of intensity change before
predictions can improve. Fortunately, many of the intellectual
and physical tools for this investigation have already been
developed to improve track forecasts. Duration: 1954 through the present
Reference:
Preprints: Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change, 11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, AZ,
American Meteorological Society, Boston, 175 pp.
Investigations
MODELING THE HURRICANE DYNAMICS WITH EXPLICIT MOIST CONVECTION
A VERIFICATION OF NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS OF SURFACE
WIND SPEED RADII IN HURRICANES
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND TROPICAL CYCLONES
TROPICAL CYCLONES ELECTRIFICATION STUDIES
AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INNER CORE.
HURRICANE EYE THERMODYNAMICS
RAPID SCAN AIRBORNE DOPPLER OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE STRUCTURE
AND EVOLUTION
THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ANALYSIS OF AIRBORNE DOPPLER
OBSERVATIONS
KINEMATIC VELOCITY STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE GILBERT (1988)
WIND FIELD AND REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
OLIVIA ON 24 SEPTEMBER 1994
WIND FIELD AND REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
OLIVIA ON 25 SEPTEMBER 1994
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE HURRICANE AND ITS ENVIRONMENT
THE DIFFERING ROLES OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT ON THE INTENSITY
CHANGES OF THREE 1996 ATLANTIC HURRICANES
SATELLITE IMAGERY INVESTIGATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
AN EMPIRICAL INLAND WIND DECAY MODEL FOR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION
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