Satellite imagery and rawinsonde data show that a tropical wave moved off the west
coast of Africa on 27 September. The wave was tracked in satellite imagery to the
Lesser Antilles on 5 October and to the western Caribbean Sea on the 9th where it
interacted with a frontal cloud band. Surface analysis indicated a broad
1010 mb low
over the northwest Caribbean Sea at 0000 UTC 11 October. At this time,
anticyclonic
flow aloft was seen in animation of satellite imagery above disorganized
convective activity.
A well-defined convective cloud band developed and post-analysis suggests that a
tropical depression formed from the disturbance near 1200 UTC 11 October while
centered about midway between Swan Island and the coast of Belize. Steering
currents were weak and the depression
began drifting toward the southwest.
The tropical cyclone quickly intensified and is estimated to have become a tropical
storm at 1800 UTC on the 11th. A small central dense overcast was evident in
satellite
imagery by the time the first reconnaissance aircraft investigated the
cyclone during the
afternoon. Maximum sustained surface winds of 45 knots are estimated to have
occurred from 1800 UTC on the 11th to 0000 UTC on the 12th. The minimum central
pressure of 1001 mb occurred near this time.
Upper-level southwesterly shear soon increased, resulting in a decrease of the deep
convection. It is estimated that Kyle weakened to a tropical depression by
1200 UTC 12 October. The center of the rapidly dissipating
depression moved onshore near the border between Guatemala and Honduras six
hours later.
The limited aircraft data on 11 October were supplied by the Hurricane
Hunters of the U.S. Air Force Reserves.
The satellite estimates were provided
by the NESDIS Synoptic Analysis Branch, the TPC's Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch and the Air Force Global Weather Center.
The maximum wind speed recorded from aircraft in Kyle was 49 knots from a flight
level of 1500 feet at 1908 UTC 11 October. The minimum observed central pressure
was 1001 mb at 2145 UTC on the 11th, and was extrapolated from 1500 feet.
Satellite estimates never exceeded T2.5 (35 knots) on the Dvorak scale.
No reports of casualties or damages were received by the NHC.