Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts

Below is a table of Hurricane Season Forecasts made by Colorado State University, NOAA, and Tropical Storm Risk from 2000 to present. Each institution makes multiple forecasts each season, but in this table we include only one pre-season forecast (May-June) and one later in the season forecast (August) made prior to the seasonal peak. Included are forecasts for the number of Named Storms (NS), Hurricanes (HU), Major Hurricanes (MH), and the season's final Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Each institution might make forecasts for other parameters, such as number of landfalling storms which are not included here. NOAA uses a range in its forecasts, but for comparison purposes the average of each range is used here. After each forecast number is the difference between the actual observed number and the forecast to aid in assessing the forecast verification. For more particulars on each forecast you may consult the archives of each institution.


Excel spreadsheet


Seasonal Forecasts Verification

Year Observed Colorado State University NOAA
CPC/HRD/NHC
TSR
Early (April) Late (August) Early (May) Late (August) Early (May) Late (August)
NSHUMHACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMH%ACEACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMH%ACEACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE
2000 15 8 3 119 11 -4 7 -1 3 0 125 6 11 -4 7 -1 3 0 130 11 9 -6 5 -3 2 -1 10 -5 6 -2 3 0
2001 15 9 4 110 10 -5 6 -3 2 -2 100 -10 12 -3 7 -2 3 -1 120 10 9.5 -5.5 6 -3 2.5 -2 10.5 -5 7 -2 3 -1 120 103.20 6.80 11 -4 6 -3 2 -2 12 -3 7 -2 3 -1
2002 12 4 2 67 12 0 7 3 3 1 125 58 9 -3 4 0 1 -1 60 -7 11.0 -1.0 7 3 2.5 1 115 100.63 -33.63 8.5 -4 5 1 2 0 80 70.00 -3.00 9 -3 5 1 2 0 8 -4 4 0 1 -1
2003 16 7 3 176 12 -4 8 1 3 0 140 -36 14 -2 8 1 3 0 120 -56 13.0 -3.0 7.5 1 3 0 145 124.70 51.30 13.5 -3 8 1 3.5 1 145 124.70 51.30 12 -4 7 0 3 0 158 -18 12 -4 7 -1 2 -1 108 -68
2004 15 9 6 227 14 -1 8 -1 3 -3 145 -82 13 -2 7 -2 3 -3 125 -102 13.5 -1.5 7 -2 3 -3 130 113.75 113.25 13.5 -2 7 -2 3 -3 120 105.00 122.00 13 -2 7 -2 3 -3 120 -107 14 -1 8 -1 3 -3 145 -82
2005 28 15 7 250 13 -15 7 -8 3 -4 135 -115 20 -8 10 -5 6 -1 235 -15 13.5 -14.5 8 -7 4 -3 155 135.63 114.38 19.5 -9 10 -5 6 -1 225 196.88 53.13 14 -14 8 -7 4 -3 158 -92 22 -6 11 -4 7 0 249 -1
2006 10 5 2 79 17 7 9 4 5 3 195 116 15 5 7 2 3 1 140 61 14.5 4.5 9 4 5 3 170 148.75 -69.75 13.5 4 8 3 3.5 2 140 122.50 -43.50 15 5 8 3 4 2 147 68 16 6 8 3 4 2 145 66
2007 15 6 2 74 17 2 9 3 5 3 170 96 15 0 8 2 4 2 150 76 15.0 0.0 8.5 3 4 2 167.5 146.56 -72.56 14.5 -1 8 2 4 2 170 148.75 -74.75 16 1 9 3 4 2 156 82 15 0 8 2 4 2 138 64
2008 16 8 5 146 15 -1 8 0 4 -1 150 4 17 1 9 1 5 0 175 29 14.0 -2.0 7.5 -1 3.5 -2 155 135.63 10.38 16 0 8.5 1 4.5 -1 185 161.88 -15.88 14 -2 8 0 3 -2 131 -15 18 2 10 2 5 -1 191 45
2009 9 3 2 53 12 3 6 3 2 0 100 47 10 1 4 1 2 0 80 27 11.5 2.5 5.5 3 2 0 97.5 85.31 -32.31 9 0 4.5 2 1.5 -1 85 74.38 -21.38 11 2 5 2 2 0 69 16 13 4 7 4 3 1 105 52
2010 19 12 5 165 15 -4 8 -4 4 -1 150 -15 18 -1 10 -2 5 0 185 20 18.5 -0.5 11 -1 5 0 212.5 185.94 -20.94 17 -2 10 -2 5 0 215 188.13 -23.13 16 -3 8 -4 4 -1 156 -9 18 -1 10 -2 5 -1 183 18
2011 19 7 4 126 16 -3 9 2 5 1 160 34 16 -3 9 2 5 1 160 34 15.0 -4.0 8 1 4.5 1 152.5 138.78 -12.78 16.5 -3 8.5 2 4 0 175 159.25 -33.25 14 -5 8 1 4 0 124 -2 15 -4 9 2 4 0 146 20
2012 19 10 2 129 10 -9 4 -6 2 0 70 -59 14 -5 6 -4 2 0 99 -30 12.0 -7.0 6 -4 2 0 102.5 93.28 35.73 14.5 -5 6.5 -4 2.5 1 105 95.55 33.45 13 -6 6 -4 3 1 98 -31 14 -5 6 -4 3 1 106 -23
2013 14 2 0 36 18 4 9 7 4 4 165 129 18 4 8 6 3 3 142 106 16.5 2.5 9 7 4.5 5 162.5 147.88 -111.88 16 2 7.5 6 4 4 155 141.05 -105.05 15 1 8 6 3 3 130 94 14 0 7 5 3 3 121 85
2014 8 6 2 67 9 1 3 -3 1 -1 55 -12 10 2 4 -2 1 -1 65 -2 10.5 2.5 4.5 -2 1.5 -1 70 63.70 3.30 9.5 2 4.5 -2 1 -1 65 59.15 7.85 12 4 5 -1 2 0 73 6 12 4 6 0 2 0 70 3
2015 11 4 2 63 7 -4 3 -1 1 -1 40 -23 8 -3 2 -2 1 -1 35 -28 8.5 -2.5 4.5 1 1 -1 62.5 56.88 6.13 8 -3 2.5 -2 0.5 -2 47.5 43.23 19.78 10 -1 4 0 1 -1 37 -26 11 0 4 0 1 -1 44 -19
2016 15 7 4 141 13 -2 6 -1 2 -2 93 -48 15 0 6 -1 2 -2 100 -41 13.0 -2.0 6 -1 2.5 -2 102.5 93.28 47.73 14.5 -1 6.5 -1 3 -1 117.5 106.93 34.08 17 2 9 2 4 0 130 -11 15 0 7 0 3 -1 94 -47
2017 17 10 6 225 11 -6 4 -6 2 -4 75 -150 16 -1 8 -2 3 -3 135 -90 14.0 -3.0 7 -3 3 -3 115 104.65 120.35 16.5 -1 7 -3 3.5 -3 135 122.85 102.15 14 -3 6 -4 3 -3 98 -127 17 0 7 -3 3 -3 116 -109
2018 15 8 2 133 14 -1 7 -1 3 1 130 -3 12 -3 5 -3 1 -1 64 -69 13.0 -2.0 7 -1 2.5 1 105 95.55 37.45 11 -4 5.5 -3 1 -1 75 68.25 64.75 9 -6 4 -4 1 -1 33 -100 11 -4 5 -3 1 -1 58 -75
2019 18 6 3 132 13 -5 5 -1 2 -1 80 -52 14 -4 7 1 2 -1 105 -27 12.0 -6.0 6 0 3 0 102.5 93.28 38.73 13.5 -5 7 1 3 0 125 113.75 18.25 12 -6 6 0 2 -1 88 -44 13 -5 6 0 2 -1 100 -32
2020 30 14 6 184 16 -14 8 -6 4 -2 150 -34 24 -6 12 -2 5 -1 200 16 16.0 -14.0 8 -6 4.5 -2 150 136.50 47.50 22 -8 9 -5 4.5 -2 185 168.35 15.65 17 -13 8 -6 3 -3 135 -49 24 -6 10 -4 4 -2 166 -18
2021 21 7 4 145 18 -3 8 1 4 0 150 5 18 -3 8 1 4 0 150 5 16.5 -4.5 8 1 4 0 150 145.05 0.05 18 -3 8.5 2 4 0 150 145.05 0.05 18 -3 9 2 4 0 140 -5 18 -3 7 0 3 -1 122 -23
2022 14 8 2 95 19 5 9 1 4 2 160 65 18 4 8 0 4 2 150 55 17.5 3.5 8 0 4.5 3 157.5 152.30 -57.30 18 4 8 0 4 2 150 145.05 -50.05 18 4 8 0 4 2 140 45 17 3 8 0 3 1 130 35
2023 20 7 3 146 13 -7 6 -1 2 -1 100 -46 18 -2 9 2 4 1 160 15 14.5 -5.5 7.0 0 2.5 -1 107.5 103.95 41.55 17.5 -3 8.5 2 3.5 1 152.5 147.47 -1.97 13 -7 6 -1 2 -1 90 -56 18 -2 8 1 3 0 140 -6
2024 18 11 5 162 23 5 11 0 5 0 210 48 23 5 12 1 6 1 230 68 21.0 3.0 10.5 -1 5.5 1 187.5 181.31 -19.31 20.5 3 10.5 -1 5.5 1 205.0 198.24 -36.24 23 5 11 0 5 0 217 55 24 6 12 1 6 1 230 68
Average 16.36 7.72 3.44 129.98 13.92 -2.44 7.00 -0.72 3.12 -0.32 126.92 -3.06 15.12 -1.24 7.40 -0.32 3.24 -0.20 132.60 2.62 13.92 -2.50 7.35 -0.35 3.33 -0.13 121.01 13.83 14.65 -1.77 7.33 -0.38 3.33 -0.13 125.40 5.04 13.77 -2.59 6.85 -0.87 2.92 -0.52 119.46 -14.80 15.22 -1.14 7.42 -0.30 3.17 -0.27 132.14 -2.12
Standard Deviantion 5 3 2 56 4 5 2 4 1 2 43 67 4 3 2 2 2 1 51 51 2.9 4.8 1.6 3.1 1.2 1.8 36.17 61.46 3.8 3.2 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.5 43.28 52.09 3.3 5 2 3 1 2 43 60 4 4 2 2 1 1 50 54

Notes:

NS = Named Storms
HU = Hurricanes
MH = Major Hurricanes
ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ΔNS = difference between observed and forecast Named Storms
ΔHU = difference between observed and forecast Hurricanes
ΔMH = difference between observed and forecast Major Hurricanes
ΔACE = difference between observed and forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy
%ACE = NOAA forecast as a % of the 30-year average Accumulated Cyclone Energy