Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts

Below is a table of Hurricane Season Forecasts made by Colorado State University, NOAA, and Tropical Storm Risk from 2000 to present. Each institution makes multiple forecasts each season, but in this table we include only one pre-season forecast (May-June) and one later in the season forecast (August) made prior to the seasonal peak. Included are forecasts for the number of Named Storms (NS), Hurricanes (HU), Major Hurricanes (MH), and the season's final Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Each institution might make forecasts for other parameters, such as number of landfalling storms which are not included here. NOAA uses a range in its forecasts, but for comparison purposes the average of each range is used here. After each forecast number is the difference between the actual observed number and the forecast to aid in assessing the forecast verification. For more particulars on each forecast you may consult the archives of each institution.

Last updated - June 6, 2023

Colorado State University

NOAA CPC/AOML/NHC

Tropical Storm Risk

Excel spreadsheet

Seasonal Forecasts Verification
Year	Observed				Colorado State University																NOAA CPC/HRD/NHC																Tropical Storm Risk
					Early (April)								Late (August)								Early (May)								Late (August)								Early (June)								Late (August)
	NS	HU	MH	ACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE	NS	ΔNS	HU	ΔHU	MH	ΔMH	ACE	ΔACE
2000	15	8	3	119	11	4	7	1	3	0	125	-6	11	4	7	1	3	0	130	-11																	8.7	6.3	5.1	2.9	2.1	0.9			10.4	4.6	6.3	1.7	3	0
2001	15	9	4	110	10	5	6	3	2	2	100	10	12	3	7	2	3	1	120	-10	9.5	-5.5	6.0	3.0	2.5	1.5			10.5	4.5	7.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	159	-49	10.9	4.1	5.8	3.2	2.4	1.6			11.8	3.2	6.9	2.1	2.9	1.1
2002	12	4	2	67	12	0	7	-3	3	-1	125	-58	9	3	4	0	1	1	60	7	11.0	-1.0	7.0	-3.0	2.5	-0.5	152	-85	8.5	3.5	5.0	-1.0	2.0	0.0	106	-39	8.9	3.1	4.6	-0.6	1.6	0.4			8.1	3.9	3.9	0.1	1.3	0.7
2003	16	7	3	176	12	4	8	-1	3	0	140	36	14	2	8	-1	3	0	120	56	13.0	-3.0	7.5	-0.5	3.0	0.0	192	-16	13.5	2.5	8.0	-1.0	3.5	-0.5	192	-16	12.4	3.6	7	0	2.8	0.2	158	18	11.7	4.3	6.5	0.5	2.4	0.6	108	68
2004	15	9	6	227	14	1	8	1	3	3	145	82	13	2	7	2	3	3	125	102	13.5	-1.5	7.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	172	55	13.5	1.5	7.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	159	68	12.6	2.4	6.8	2.2	2.7	3.3	120	107	14	1	7.6	1.4	3.1	2.9	145	82
2005	28	15	7	250	13	15	7	8	3	4	135	115	20	8	10	5	6	1	235	15	13.5	-14.5	8.0	7.0	4.0	3.0	205	5	19.5	8.5	10.0	5.0	6.0	1.0	298	-48	13.9	14.1	7.8	7.2	3.6	3.4	158	92	22.1	5.9	11.4	3.6	6.6	0.4	249	1
2006	10	5	2	79	17	-7	9	-4	5	-3	195	-116	15	-5	7	-2	3	-1	140	-61	14.5	4.5	9.0	-4.0	5.0	-3.0	225	-146	13.5	-3.5	8.0	-3.0	3.5	-1.5	186	-107	14.6	-4.6	7.9	-2.9	3.6	-1.6	147	-68	15.9	-5.9	7.9	-2.9	3.5	-1.5	145	-66
2007	15	6	2	74	17	-2	9	-3	5	-3	170	-96	15	0	8	-2	4	-2	150	-76	15.0	0.0	8.5	-2.5	4.0	-2.0	222	-148	14.5	0.5	8.0	-2.0	4.0	-2.0	225	-151	15.7	-0.7	8.6	-2.6	3.9	-1.9	156	-82	14.7	0.3	7.8	-1.8	3.5	-1.5	138	-64
2008	16	8	5	146	15	1	8	0	4	1	150	-4	17	-1	9	-1	5	0	175	-29	14.0	-2.0	7.5	0.5	3.5	1.5	205	-59	16.0	0.0	8.5	-0.5	4.5	0.5	245	-99	14.4	1.6	7.7	0.3	3.4	1.6	131	15	18.2	-2.2	9.7	-1.7	4.5	0.5	191	-45
2009	9	3	2	53	12	-3	6	-3	2	0	100	-47	10	-1	4	-1	2	0	80	-27	11.5	2.5	5.5	-2.5	2.0	0.0	129	-76	9.0	0.0	4.5	-1.5	1.5	0.5	113	-60	10.9	-1.9	5.2	-2.2	2.2	-0.2	69	-16	12.6	-3.6	6.5	-3.5	2.8	-0.8	105	-52
2010	19	12	5	165	15	4	8	4	4	1	150	15	18	1	10	2	5	0	185	-20	18.5	-0.5	11.0	1.0	5.0	0.0	282	-117	17.0	2.0	10.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	285	-120	16	3	8	4	4	1	156.1	8.9	17.8	1.2	9.7	2.3	4.5	0.5	183	-18
2011	19	7	4	126	16	3	9	-2	5	-1	160	-34	16	3	9	-2	5	-1	160	-34	15.0	-4.0	8.0	-1.0	4.5	-0.5	202	-76	16.5	2.5	8.5	-1.5	4.0	0.0	232	-106	14.2	4.8	7.6	-0.6	3.6	0.4	124	2	15.1	3.9	8.5	-1.5	4.2	-0.2	146	-20
2012	19	10	2	129	10	9	4	6	2	0	70	59	14	5	6	4	2	0	99	30	12.0	-7.0	6.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	150	-21	14.5	4.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	-0.5	139	-10	12.7	6.3	5.7	4.3	2.7	-0.7	98	31	14.2	4.8	6	4	2.9	-0.9	106	23
2013	14	2	0	36	18	-4	9	-7	4	-4	165	-129	18	-4	8	-6	3	-3	142	-106	16.5	2.5	9.0	-7.0	4.5	-4.5	215	-179	16.0	-2.0	7.5	-5.5	4.0	-4.0	205	-169	15.3	-1.3	7.5	-5.5	3.4	-3.4	130	-94	13.8	0.2	6.9	-4.9	3	-3	121	-85
2014	8	6	2	67	9	-1	3	3	1	1	55	12	10	-2	4	2	1	1	65	2	10.5	2.5	4.5	1.5	1.5	0.5	93	-26	9.5	-1.5	4.5	1.5	1.0	1.0	75	-8	12	-4	5	1	2	0	73	-6	12	-4	6	0	2	0	70	-3
2015	11	4	2	63	7	4	3	1	1	1	40	23	8	3	2	2	1	1	35	28	8.5	-2.5	4.5	-0.5	1.0	1.0	82	-19	8.0	3.0	2.5	1.5	0.5	1.5	63	1	10	1	4	0	1	1	37	26	11	0	4	0	1	1	44	19
2016	15	7	4	141	13	2	6	1	2	2	93	48	15	0	6	1	2	2	100	41	13.0	-2.0	6.0	1.0	2.5	1.5	135	6	14.5	0.5	6.5	0.5	3.0	1.0	155	-1	17	-2	9	-2	4	0	130	11	15	0	7	0	3	1	94	47
2017	17	10	6	225	11	6	4	6	2	4	75	150	16	1	8	2	3	3	135	90	14.0	-3.0	7.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	152	73	16.5	0.5	7.0	3.0	3.5	2.5	178	47	14	3	6	4	3	3	98	127	17	0	7	3	3	3	116	109
2018	15	8	2	133	14	1	7	1	3	-1	130	3	12	3	5	3	1	1	64	69	13.0	-2.0	7.0	1.0	2.5	-0.5	139	-6	11.0	4.0	5.5	2.5	1.0	1.0	99	34	9	6	4	4	1	1	33	100	11	4	5	3	1	1	58	75
2019	18	6	3	132	13	5	5	1	2	1	80	52	14	4	7	-1	2	1	105	27	12.0	-6.0	6.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	135	-3	13.5	4.5	7.0	-1.0	3.0	0.0	165	-33	12	6	6	0	2	1	88	44	13	5	6	0	2	1	100	32
2020	30	14	6	184	16	14	8	6	4	2	150	34	24	6	12	2	5	1	200	-16	16.0	-14.0	8.0	6.0	4.5	1.5	198	-14	22.0	8.0	9.0	5.0	4.5	1.5	244	-60	17	13	8	6	3	3	135	49.5	24	6	10	4	4	2	166	18.5
2021	21	7	4	145	18	3	8	-1	4	0	150	-5	18	3	8	-1	4	0	150	-5	16.5	4.5	8.0	-1.0	4.0	0.0	183	-38	18.0	3.0	8.5	-1.5	4.0	0.0	183	-38	18	3	9	-2	4	0	140	5	18	3	7	0	3	1	122	23
2022	14	8	2	95	19	-5	9	-1	4	-2	160	-65	18	-4	8	0	4	-2	150	-55	17.5	-3.5	8.0	0	4.5	-3	193	-98	18	-4	8	0	4	-2	184	-89	18	-4	8	0	4	-2	140	-45	17	-3	8	0	3	-1	130	-35
2023					13		6		2		100	5								5	14.5		7.0		2.5		104										13		6		2		90

Notes:

NS = Named Storms
HU = Hurricanes
MH = Major Hurricanes
ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ΔNS = difference between observed and forecast Named Storms
ΔHU = difference between observed and forecast Hurricanes
ΔMH = difference between observed and forecast Major Hurricanes
ΔACE = difference between observed and forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy