Below is a table of Hurricane Season Forecasts made by Colorado State University, NOAA, and Tropical Storm Risk from 2000 to present. Each institution makes multiple forecasts each season, but in this table we include only one pre-season forecast (May-June) and one later in the season forecast (August) made prior to the seasonal peak. Included are forecasts for the number of Named Storms (NS), Hurricanes (HU), Major Hurricanes (MH), and the season's final Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Each institution might make forecasts for other parameters, such as number of landfalling storms which are not included here. NOAA uses a range in its forecasts, but for comparison purposes the average of each range is used here. After each forecast number is the difference between the actual observed number and the forecast to aid in assessing the forecast verification. For more particulars on each forecast you may consult the archives of each institution.
Seasonal Forecasts Verification
|
Year |
Observed |
Colorado State University |
NOAA CPC/HRD/NHC |
Tropical Storm Risk |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Early (April) |
Late (August) |
Early (May) |
Late (August) |
Early (June) |
Late (August) |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
NS |
HU |
MH |
ACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
NS |
ΔNS |
HU |
ΔHU |
MH |
ΔMH |
ACE |
ΔACE |
|
|
2000 |
15 |
8 |
3 |
119 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
125 |
-6 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
130 |
-11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8.7 |
6.3 |
5.1 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
|
|
10.4 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
1.7 |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
2001 |
15 |
9 |
4 |
110 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
100 |
10 |
12 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
120 |
-10 |
9.5 |
-5.5 |
6.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
|
10.5 |
4.5 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
159 |
-49 |
10.9 |
4.1 |
5.8 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
|
|
11.8 |
3.2 |
6.9 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
2002 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
67 |
12 |
0 |
7 |
-3 |
3 |
-1 |
125 |
-58 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
60 |
7 |
11.0 |
-1.0 |
7.0 |
-3.0 |
2.5 |
-0.5 |
152 |
-85 |
8.5 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
-1.0 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
106 |
-39 |
8.9 |
3.1 |
4.6 |
-0.6 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
|
|
8.1 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
2003 |
16 |
7 |
3 |
176 |
12 |
4 |
8 |
-1 |
3 |
0 |
140 |
36 |
14 |
2 |
8 |
-1 |
3 |
0 |
120 |
56 |
13.0 |
-3.0 |
7.5 |
-0.5 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
192 |
-16 |
13.5 |
2.5 |
8.0 |
-1.0 |
3.5 |
-0.5 |
192 |
-16 |
12.4 |
3.6 |
7 |
0 |
2.8 |
0.2 |
158 |
18 |
11.7 |
4.3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
108 |
68 |
|
2004 |
15 |
9 |
6 |
227 |
14 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
145 |
82 |
13 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
125 |
102 |
13.5 |
-1.5 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
172 |
55 |
13.5 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
159 |
68 |
12.6 |
2.4 |
6.8 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
120 |
107 |
14 |
1 |
7.6 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
145 |
82 |
|
2005 |
28 |
15 |
7 |
250 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
135 |
115 |
20 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
235 |
15 |
13.5 |
-14.5 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
205 |
5 |
19.5 |
8.5 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
1.0 |
298 |
-48 |
13.9 |
14.1 |
7.8 |
7.2 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
158 |
92 |
22.1 |
5.9 |
11.4 |
3.6 |
6.6 |
0.4 |
249 |
1 |
|
2006 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
79 |
17 |
-7 |
9 |
-4 |
5 |
-3 |
195 |
-116 |
15 |
-5 |
7 |
-2 |
3 |
-1 |
140 |
-61 |
14.5 |
4.5 |
9.0 |
-4.0 |
5.0 |
-3.0 |
225 |
-146 |
13.5 |
-3.5 |
8.0 |
-3.0 |
3.5 |
-1.5 |
186 |
-107 |
14.6 |
-4.6 |
7.9 |
-2.9 |
3.6 |
-1.6 |
147 |
-68 |
15.9 |
-5.9 |
7.9 |
-2.9 |
3.5 |
-1.5 |
145 |
-66 |
|
2007 |
15 |
6 |
2 |
74 |
17 |
-2 |
9 |
-3 |
5 |
-3 |
170 |
-96 |
15 |
0 |
8 |
-2 |
4 |
-2 |
150 |
-76 |
15.0 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
-2.5 |
4.0 |
-2.0 |
222 |
-148 |
14.5 |
0.5 |
8.0 |
-2.0 |
4.0 |
-2.0 |
225 |
-151 |
15.7 |
-0.7 |
8.6 |
-2.6 |
3.9 |
-1.9 |
156 |
-82 |
14.7 |
0.3 |
7.8 |
-1.8 |
3.5 |
-1.5 |
138 |
-64 |
|
2008 |
16 |
8 |
5 |
146 |
15 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
150 |
-4 |
17 |
-1 |
9 |
-1 |
5 |
0 |
175 |
-29 |
14.0 |
-2.0 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
205 |
-59 |
16.0 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
-0.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
245 |
-99 |
14.4 |
1.6 |
7.7 |
0.3 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
131 |
15 |
18.2 |
-2.2 |
9.7 |
-1.7 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
191 |
-45 |
|
2009 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
53 |
12 |
-3 |
6 |
-3 |
2 |
0 |
100 |
-47 |
10 |
-1 |
4 |
-1 |
2 |
0 |
80 |
-27 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
-2.5 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
129 |
-76 |
9.0 |
0.0 |
4.5 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
113 |
-60 |
10.9 |
-1.9 |
5.2 |
-2.2 |
2.2 |
-0.2 |
69 |
-16 |
12.6 |
-3.6 |
6.5 |
-3.5 |
2.8 |
-0.8 |
105 |
-52 |
|
2010 |
19 |
12 |
5 |
165 |
15 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
150 |
15 |
18 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
185 |
-20 |
18.5 |
-0.5 |
11.0 |
1.0 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
282 |
-117 |
17.0 |
2.0 |
10.0 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
285 |
-120 |
16 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
156.1 |
8.9 |
17.8 |
1.2 |
9.7 |
2.3 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
183 |
-18 |
|
2011 |
19 |
7 |
4 |
126 |
16 |
3 |
9 |
-2 |
5 |
-1 |
160 |
-34 |
16 |
3 |
9 |
-2 |
5 |
-1 |
160 |
-34 |
15.0 |
-4.0 |
8.0 |
-1.0 |
4.5 |
-0.5 |
202 |
-76 |
16.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
-1.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
232 |
-106 |
14.2 |
4.8 |
7.6 |
-0.6 |
3.6 |
0.4 |
124 |
2 |
15.1 |
3.9 |
8.5 |
-1.5 |
4.2 |
-0.2 |
146 |
-20 |
|
2012 |
19 |
10 |
2 |
129 |
10 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
70 |
59 |
14 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
99 |
30 |
12.0 |
-7.0 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
150 |
-21 |
14.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
-0.5 |
139 |
-10 |
12.7 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
-0.7 |
98 |
31 |
14.2 |
4.8 |
6 |
4 |
2.9 |
-0.9 |
106 |
23 |
|
2013 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
36 |
18 |
-4 |
9 |
-7 |
4 |
-4 |
165 |
-129 |
18 |
-4 |
8 |
-6 |
3 |
-3 |
142 |
-106 |
16.5 |
2.5 |
9.0 |
-7.0 |
4.5 |
-4.5 |
215 |
-179 |
16.0 |
-2.0 |
7.5 |
-5.5 |
4.0 |
-4.0 |
205 |
-169 |
15.3 |
-1.3 |
7.5 |
-5.5 |
3.4 |
-3.4 |
130 |
-94 |
13.8 |
0.2 |
6.9 |
-4.9 |
3 |
-3 |
121 |
-85 |
|
2014 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
67 |
9 |
-1 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
55 |
12 |
10 |
-2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
65 |
2 |
10.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
93 |
-26 |
9.5 |
-1.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
75 |
-8 |
12 |
-4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
73 |
-6 |
12 |
-4 |
6 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
70 |
-3 |
|
2015 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
63 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
40 |
23 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
35 |
28 |
8.5 |
-2.5 |
4.5 |
-0.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
82 |
-19 |
8.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
63 |
1 |
10 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
37 |
26 |
11 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
44 |
19 |
|
2016 |
15 |
7 |
4 |
141 |
13 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
93 |
48 |
15 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
100 |
41 |
13.0 |
-2.0 |
6.0 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
135 |
6 |
14.5 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
155 |
-1 |
17 |
-2 |
9 |
-2 |
4 |
0 |
130 |
11 |
15 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
94 |
47 |
|
2017 |
17 |
10 |
6 |
225 |
11 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
75 |
150 |
16 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
135 |
90 |
14.0 |
-3.0 |
7.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
152 |
73 |
16.5 |
0.5 |
7.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
178 |
47 |
14 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
98 |
127 |
17 |
0 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
116 |
109 |
|
2018 |
15 |
8 |
2 |
133 |
14 |
1 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
-1 |
130 |
3 |
12 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
64 |
69 |
13.0 |
-2.0 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
-0.5 |
139 |
-6 |
11.0 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
99 |
34 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
33 |
100 |
11 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
58 |
75 |
|
2019 |
18 |
6 |
3 |
132 |
13 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
80 |
52 |
14 |
4 |
7 |
-1 |
2 |
1 |
105 |
27 |
12.0 |
-6.0 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
135 |
-3 |
13.5 |
4.5 |
7.0 |
-1.0 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
165 |
-33 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
88 |
44 |
13 |
5 |
6 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
100 |
32 |
|
2020 |
30 |
14 |
6 |
184 |
16 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
150 |
34 |
24 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
200 |
-16 |
16.0 |
-14.0 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
198 |
-14 |
22.0 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
244 |
-60 |
17 |
13 |
8 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
135 |
49.5 |
24 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
166 |
18.5 |
|
2021 |
21 |
7 |
4 |
145 |
18 |
3 |
8 |
-1 |
4 |
0 |
150 |
-5 |
18 |
3 |
8 |
-1 |
4 |
0 |
150 |
-5 |
16.5 |
4.5 |
8.0 |
-1.0 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
183 |
-38 |
18.0 |
3.0 |
8.5 |
-1.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
183 |
-38 |
18 |
3 |
9 |
-2 |
4 |
0 |
140 |
5 |
18 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
122 |
23 |
|
2022 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
95 |
19 |
-5 |
9 |
-1 |
4 |
-2 |
160 |
-65 |
18 |
-4 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
-2 |
150 |
-55 |
17.5 |
-3.5 |
8.0 |
0 |
4.5 |
-3 |
193 |
-98 |
18 |
-4 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
-2 |
184 |
-89 |
18 |
-4 |
8 |
0 |
4 |
-2 |
140 |
-45 |
17 |
-3 |
8 |
0 |
3 |
-1 |
130 |
-35 |
|
2023 |
20 |
7 |
3 |
146 |
13 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
100 |
46 |
18 |
2 |
9 |
-2 |
4 |
-1 |
160 |
-15 |
14.5 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
0 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
104 |
41 |
17.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
-1.5 |
3.5 |
-0.5 |
148 |
-3 |
13 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
90 |
56 |
18 |
2 |
8 |
-1 |
3 |
0 |
140 |
6 |
Notes:
NS = Named Storms
HU = Hurricanes
MH = Major Hurricanes
ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ΔNS = difference between observed and forecast Named Storms
ΔHU = difference between observed and forecast Hurricanes
ΔMH = difference between observed and forecast Major Hurricanes
ΔACE = difference between observed and forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy