Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts

Below is a table of Hurricane Season Forecasts made by Colorado State University, NOAA, and Tropical Storm Risk from 2000 to present. Each institution makes multiple forecasts each season, but in this table we include only one pre-season forecast (May-June) and one later in the season forecast (August) made prior to the seasonal peak. Included are forecasts for the number of Named Storms (NS), Hurricanes (HU), Major Hurricanes (MH), and the season's final Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Each institution might make forecasts for other parameters, such as number of landfalling storms which are not included here. NOAA uses a range in its forecasts, but for comparison purposes the average of each range is used here. After each forecast number is the difference between the actual observed number and the forecast to aid in assessing the forecast verification. For more particulars on each forecast you may consult the archives of each institution.

Excel spreadsheet

Seasonal Forecasts Verification
Year Observed Colorado State University NOAA
CPC/HRD/NHC
Tropical Storm Risk
Early (April) Late (August) Early (May) Late (August) Early (June) Late (August)
NSHUMHACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE NSΔNSHUΔHU MHΔMHACEΔACE
200015831191147130125-61147130130-118.76.35.12.92.10.910.44.66.31.730
200115941101056322100101237231120-109.5-5.56.03.02.51.510.54.57.02.03.01.0159-4910.94.15.83.22.41.611.83.26.92.12.91.1
20021242671207-33-1125-5893401160711.0-1.07.0-3.02.5-0.5152-858.53.55.0-1.02.00.0106-398.93.14.6-0.61.60.48.13.93.90.11.30.7
200316731761248-130140361428-1301205613.0-3.07.5-0.53.00.0192-1613.52.58.0-1.03.5-0.5192-1612.43.6702.80.21581811.74.36.50.52.40.610868
20041596227141813314582132723312510213.5-1.57.02.03.03.01725513.51.57.02.03.03.015968 12.62.46.82.22.73.31201071417.61.43.12.914582
20052815725013157834135115208105612351513.5-14.58.07.04.03.0205519.58.510.05.06.01.0298-4813.914.17.87.23.63.41589222.15.911.43.66.60.42491
200610527917-79-45-3195-11615-57-23-1140-6114.54.59.0-4.05.0-3.0225-14613.5-3.58.0-3.03.5-1.5186-10714.6-4.67.9-2.93.6-1.6147-6815.9-5.97.9-2.93.5-1.5145-66
200715627417-29-35-3170-961508-24-2150-7615.00.08.5-2.54.0-2.0222-14814.50.58.0-2.04.0-2.0225-15115.7-0.78.6-2.63.9-1.9156-8214.70.37.8-1.83.5-1.5138-64
200816851461518041150-417-19-150175-2914.0-2.07.50.53.51.5205-5916.00.08.5-0.54.50.5245-9914.41.67.70.33.41.61311518.2-2.29.7-1.74.50.5191-45
20099325312-36-320100-4710-14-12080-2711.52.55.5-2.52.00.0129-769.00.04.5-1.51.50.5113-6010.9-1.95.2-2.22.2-0.269-1612.6-3.66.5-3.52.8-0.8105-52
20101912516515484411501518110250185-2018.5-0.511.01.05.00.0282-11717.02.010.02.05.00.0285-1201638441156.18.917.81.29.72.34.50.5183-18
201119741261639-25-1160-341639-25-1160-3415.0-4.08.0-1.04.5-0.5202-7616.52.58.5-1.54.00.0232-10614.24.87.6-0.63.60.4124215.13.98.5-1.54.2-0.2146-20
201219102129109462070591456420993012.0-7.06.04.02.00.0150-2114.54.56.53.52.5-0.5139-1012.76.35.74.32.7-0.7983114.24.8642.9-0.910623
201314203618-49-74-4165-12918-48-63-3142-10616.52.59.0-7.04.5-4.5215-17916.0-2.07.5-5.54.0-4.0205-16915.3-1.37.5-5.53.4-3.4130-9413.80.26.9-4.93-3121-85
2014862679-13311551210-2421165210.52.54.51.51.50.593-269.5-1.54.51.51.01.075-812-4512073-612-4602070-3
2015114263743111402383221135288.5-2.54.5-0.51.01.082-198.03.02.51.50.51.56311014011372611040114419
201615741411326122934815061221004113.0-2.06.01.02.51.5135614.50.56.50.53.01.0155-117-29-2401301115070319447
20171710622511646247515016182331359014.0-3.07.03.03.03.01527316.50.57.03.03.52.5178471436433981271707333116109
20181582133141713-113031235311646913.0-2.07.01.02.5-0.5139-611.04.05.52.51.01.099349644113310011453115875
20191863132135512180521447-1211052712.0-6.06.00.03.00.0135-313.54.57.0-1.03.00.0165-3312660218844135602110032
202030146184161486421503424612251200-1616.0-14.08.06.04.51.5198-1422.08.09.05.04.51.5244-601713863313549.52461044216618.5
20211884150188415016.58.04.0183188.5418318941401873122

Notes:

NS = Named Storms
HU = Hurricanes
MH = Major Hurricanes
ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ΔNS = difference between observed and forecast Named Storms
ΔHU = difference between observed and forecast Hurricanes
ΔMH = difference between observed and forecast Major Hurricanes
ΔACE = difference between observed and forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy