Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
AVNN | 67 | 102 | 137 | 226 | 300 | 385 | 498 | 772 | 1250 | 1729
| AVNO | 49 | 84 | 111 | 222 | 274 | 357 | 520 | 845 | 1417 | 2077
| %IMP | 27% | 18% | 19% | 2% | 9% | 7% | -4% | -9% | -13% | -20%
| GFNO | 44 | 89 | 111 | 201 | 234 | 327 | 475 | 780 | 1337 | 1994
| GFDL | 65 | 77 | 54 | 126 | 200 | 260 | 396 | 666 | 1191 | 1896
| %IMP | -48% | 13% | 51% | 37% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 11% | 5%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -111 | -97 | -79 | -71 | -73 | -55 | -45 | -13 | -8 | -11
| AVNO | -109 | -91 | -75 | -63 | -60 | -52 | -35 | -10 | -2 | -8
| %IMP | 2% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 18% | 5% | 22% | 23% | 75% | 27%
| GFNO | -42 | -21 | -13 | -22 | -30 | -21 | -19 | 2 | 7 | -6
| GFDL | -50 | -22 | -20 | -25 | -24 | -20 | -21 | 8 | 9 | 0
| %IMP | -19% | -5% | -54% | -14% | 20% | 5% | -11% | -200% | -29% | 100%
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21/2145 UTC 20.6N 86.8W on Cozumel, Mexico, 75.75 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
AVNN | 21.89 | 85.03 | 59.0 | 232.7 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
|
22/0330 UTC 20.8N 86.9W near Puerto Morelos, Mexico 81.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 21.89 | 85.03 | 59.0 | 228.3 | Near La Fe, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | | |
|
24/1030 UTC 25.9N 81.7W near Cape Romano, FL 136.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 24.75 | 81.12 | 94.5 | 140.4 | Marathon, FL
| AVNO | 25.26 | 81.12 | 93.5 | 91.8 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | -2% | 35%
| GFNO | 26.19 | 81.86 | 95.5 | 36.0 | Naples, FL
| GFDL | 26.69 | 81.79 | 99.5 | 88.2 | Cape Coral, FL
| %IMP | 10% | -145% |
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