Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 October 2000 0600 UTC
JOYCE.

QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	47.	100.
AVAL	168.	285.
%IMP	-257%	-185%

GFNO	59.	86.
GFAL	79.	114.
%IMP	-34%	-33%

VBNO	103.	66.
VBAL	128.	141.
%IMP	-24%	-114%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h

AVNN	-6.	-3.
AVAL	-3.	1.
%IMP	50%	67%

GFNO	31.	40.
GFAL	25.	42.
%IMP	19%	-5%

SHNO	17.	29.
SHAL	18.	33.
%IMP	-6%	-14%

DSNO	17.	29.
DSAL	18.	33.
%IMP	-6%	-14%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 October 2000 0600 UTC (Tropical Storm Joyce).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 October 2000 0600 UTC. The best track is shown in black.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 October 2000 0600 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 October 2000 0600 UTC.