Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
01 October 2000 0000 UTC
JOYCE.
QuickTime movie of DLM wind model forecasts
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data increments
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 46. | 24.
| AVAL | 178. | 235.
| %IMP | -287% | -879%
|
| GFNO | 59. | 117.
| GFAL | 80. | 202.
| %IMP | -36% | -73%
|
| VBNO | 39. | 55.
| VBAL | 88. | 31.
| %IMP | -126% | 44%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -9. | -5.
| AVAL | -7. | -2.
| %IMP | 22% | 40%
|
| GFNO | 32. | 52.
| GFAL | 24. | 35.
| %IMP | 25% | 33%
|
| SHNO | 10. | 24.
| SHAL | 11. | 26.
| %IMP | -10% | -8%
|
| DSNO | 10. | 24.
| DSAL | 11. | 26.
| %IMP | -10% | -8%
| | ||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 01 October 2000 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Joyce).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN, GFDL, and VBAR models initialized on 01 October 2000 0000 UTC. The best track is shown in black.
Figure 3. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 01 October 2000 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 4. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 01 October 2000 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
