Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
09 September 2004 1200 UTC
Ivan.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | 11 | 15 | 77 | 165 | 170 | 317 | 373 | 428 | 536 | 641
| AVNO | 78 | 137 | 183 | 217 | 239 | 336 | 493 | 581 | 714 | 830
| %IMP | -609% | -813% | -32% | -32% | -41% | -6% | -32% | -36% | -33% | -29%
|
| GFNO | 35 | 94 | 94 | 119 | 157 | 235 | 322 | 426 | 533 | 621
| GFDL | 56 | 135 | 94 | 111 | 146 | 239 | 338 | 435 | 531 | 574
| %IMP | -60% | -44% | 0% | 7% | 7% | -2% | -5% | -2% | 0% | 8%
|
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
|
| AVNN | -85 | -85 | -93 | -76 | -104 | -86 | -96 | -97 | -93 | -76
| AVNO | -72 | -72 | -80 | -81 | -95 | -83 | -84 | -89 | -87 | -71
| %IMP | 15% | 15% | 14% | -7% | 9% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 7%
|
| GFNO | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | -24 | -16 | -27 | -38 | -43 | -32
| GFDL | -22 | -3 | -15 | -5 | -30 | -20 | -29 | -38 | -41 | -38
| %IMP | -633% | 57% | -275% | -400% | -25% | -25% | -7% | 0% | 5% | -19%
|
| | ||||||||||
| 11/0330 UTC 17.4N 77.2W 20 n mi S of Portland Point, Jamaica 39.5 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 17.87 | 76.55 | 44.5 | 86.4 | Kingston, Jamaica
| AVNO | 18.74 | 75.86 | 34.5 | 205.4 | Near Hope Bay, Jamaica
| %IMP | 0% | -137%
|
| GFNO | 17.93 | 76.84 | 35.0 | 70.1 | Kingston, Jamaica
| GFDL | 17.93 | 76.20 | 32.0 | 121.1 | Golden Grove, Jamaica
| %IMP | -67% | -73%
|
|
12/1415 UTC 18.9N 81.5W 22 n mi SSW of Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island 74.25 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 20.26 | 78.81 | 77.5 | 319.6 | Near Santa Cruz del Sur, Camaguey, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.57 | 79.26 | 75.5 | 377.5 | Near Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| %IMP | 62% | -18%
|
| GFNO | 19.81 | 80.52 | 63.0 | 144.1 | Near Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| GFDL | 20.40 | 80.27 | 68.0 | 210.6 | Offshore Georgetown, Grand Cayman Island
| %IMP | 32% | -46%
|
|
14/0100 UTC 21.7N 85.2W 15 n mi SW of Cabo San Antonio, Cuba 109.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 22.12 | 80.44 | 94.5 | 492.9 | Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba
| AVNO | 21.57 | 79.26 | 75.5 | 613.6 | Near Sancti Spiritus, Sancti Spiritus, Cuba
| %IMP | -131% | -24%
|
| GFNO | 22.54 | 82.89 | 85.0 | 255.4 | San Cristobal, Pinar del Rio, Cuba
| GFDL | 21.70 | 81.32 | 78.5 | 400.5 | Cayo Largo, Cuba
| %IMP | -27% | -57%
|
|
16/0650 UTC 30.2N 87.9W Near Pine Beach, AL 163.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | 24.40 | 82.77 | 98.0 | 819.6 | Dry Tortugas, FL
| %IMP |
| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 09 September 2004 1200 UTC (Hurricane Ivan).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 09 September 2004 1200 UTC.
Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 09 September 2004 1200 UTC.
