Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
Tropical Storm Irene.

QuickTime movie of DLM wind analyses
QuickTime movie of DLM wind data initial increments

Assessments for each forecast time at
October 13, 1999 18 Z
October 14, 1999 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z
October 15, 1999 00 Z 06 Z 12 Z


Figure 1a. Track forecast errors for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models for the Hurricane Irene synoptic surveillance mission.


Figure 1b. Track forecast improvements for the GFS and GFDL models for the the Hurricane Irene synoptic surveillance mission.


(a)


(b)

Figure 2. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Irene at Western Isle of Youth, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 3. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Irene at Batabano, Cuba, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 4. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Irene at Key West, FL, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.


(a)


(b)

Figure 5. Forecast errors for the landfall of Hurricane Irene at Cape Sable, FL, in the (a) cross- and (b) along-track directions for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the GFS and GFDL models.

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