Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 59 | 84 | 104 | 100 | 91 | 80 | 37 | 32 | 45 | 30
| AVNO | 22 | 73 | 102 | 127 | 123 | 134 | 119 | 129 | 130 | 141
| %IMP | 63% | 13% | 2% | -27% | -35% | -68% | -222% | -303% | -289% | -370%
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| GFNO | 24 | 88 | 122 | 153 | 174 | 208 | 230 | 299 | 382 | 485
| GFDL | 45 | 84 | 144 | 161 | 150 | 199 | 208 | 291 | 370 | 488
| %IMP | -88% | 4% | -18% | -5% | 14% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 3% | -1%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
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| AVNN | -76 | -73 | -78 | -65 | -44 | -29 | -18 | -19 | -16 | -1
| AVNO | -56 | -51 | -65 | -41 | -31 | -12 | -15 | -6 | 2 | 14
| %IMP | 26% | 30% | 17% | 37% | 30% | 59% | 17% | 68% | 87% | -1300%
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| GFNO | -2 | -1 | -16 | -6 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 23
| GFDL | -11 | -9 | -17 | -13 | -7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 28
| %IMP | -450% | -800% | -6% | -117% | und% | 44% | -150% | 0% | -18% | 22%
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02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 43.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 24.64 | 74.13 | 42.5 | 80.4 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.68 | 73.70 | 44.0 | 110.8 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 50% | -38%
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| GFNO | 24.78 | 73.69 | 41.5 | 119.3 | Near San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.04 | 73.61 | 43.5 | 146.4 | Offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | -23%
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03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 53.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
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| AVNN | 25.27 | 75.03 | 50.0 | 94.0 | Offshore Cat Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.14 | 75.87 | 68.0 | 173.2 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -314% | -84%
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| GFNO | 26.12 | 75.05 | 53.5 | 177.7 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.33 | 75.40 | 58.0 | 193.2 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | und% | -9%
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03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 58.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
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| AVNN | 25.91 | 75.83 | 57.5 | 94.0 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.14 | 75.87 | 68.0 | 117.8 | Near Northern Tip of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -1900% | -25%
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| GFNO | 26.12 | 75.05 | 53.5 | 154.6 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.33 | 75.40 | 58.0 | 153.6 | Offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 100% | 1%
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04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 82.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 26.92 | 77.85 | 80.0 | 49.7 | Little Abaco Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.88 | 77.96 | 93.0 | 39.2 | Little Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -450% | 21%
|
| GFNO | 27.24 | 76.29 | 65.0 | 202.1 | Near Tilloo Cay, Bahamas
| GFDL | 27.10 | 76.16 | 66.5 | 209.7 | Near Tilloo Cay, Bahamas
| %IMP | -9% | -4%
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05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 100.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.09 | 80.13 | 99.0 | 14.0 | Jupiter, FL
| AVNO | 27.99 | 80.52 | 99.5 | 93.3 | Palm Bay, FL
| %IMP | |
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| GFNO | 32.17 | 80.80 | 119.0 | 555.2 | Hilton Head Island, SC
| GFDL | No landfall forecast |
| %IMP
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06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 138.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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