Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 43 | 76 | 108 | 169 | 202 | 219 | 212 | 237 | 201 | 316
| AVNO | 43 | 46 | 67 | 88 | 153 | 209 | 229 | 230 | 311 | 400
| %IMP | 0% | 39% | 38% | 48% | 24% | 5% | -8% | 3% | -55% | -27%
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| GFNO | 46 | 54 | 102 | 144 | 212 | 255 | 278 | 370 | 460 | 662
| GFDL | 38 | 39 | 56 | 124 | 204 | 237 | 273 | 342 | 403 | 587
| %IMP | 17% | 25% | 48% | 14% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 12% | 11%
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| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
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| AVNN | -77 | -81 | -78 | -75 | -80 | -67 | -49 | -35 | -36 | -29
| AVNO | -72 | -73 | -75 | -70 | -77 | -60 | -35 | -29 | -21 | -17
| %IMP | 6% | 10% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 29% | 17% | 42% | 41%
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| GFNO | -6 | -8 | -5 | -8 | -21 | -19 | -7 | 4 | -4 | 1
| GFDL | 2 | -1 | -6 | -5 | -17 | -17 | -9 | 0 | -2 | -3
| %IMP | 67% | 88% | -20% | 38% | 19% | 11% | -29% | 100% | 50% | -200%
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02/1930 UTC 24.0N 74.5W San Salvador Island, Bahamas 67.5 h into the forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.09 | 73.30 | 61.0 | 171.4 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 24.98 | 73.17 | 65.5 | 173.0 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 69% | -1%
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| GFNO | 25.16 | 73.37 | 60.5 | 172.2 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 25.23 | 73.37 | 62.0 | 178.0 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 21% | -4%
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03/0530 UTC 24.6N 75.6W Northern end of Cat Island, Bahamas 77.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 25.09 | 73.30 | 61.0 | 238.2 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.51 | 74.42 | 78.0 | 242.9 | Well offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 97% | 2%
|
| GFNO | 25.16 | 73.37 | 60.5 | 233.2 | Well offshore San Salvador Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.36 | 74.55 | 72.5 | 222.1 | Well offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 71% | 5%
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03/1000 UTC 25.1N 76.1W Eleuthera Island, Bahamas 82.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 27.37 | 75.87 | 87.5 | 253.2 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 26.51 | 74.42 | 78.0 | 229.7 | Well offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 27% | 9%
|
| GFNO | 27.46 | 75.90 | 81.0 | 263.0 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 26.36 | 74.55 | 72.5 | 158.4 | Well offshore Eleuthera Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -850% | 40%
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04/1000 UTC 26.6N 78.2W Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas 106.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | 28.14 | 77.06 | 105.5 | 204.8 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| AVNO | 27.30 | 75.70 | 96.0 | 259.5 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | -1900% | -27%
|
| GFNO | 27.46 | 75.90 | 81.0 | 315.8 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| GFDL | 27.53 | 75.56 | 82.5 | 346.0 | Well offshore Abaco Island, Bahamas
| %IMP | 6% | -10%
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05/0430 UTC 27.2N 80.2W South end of Hutchinson Island, FL 124.5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
|
| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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06/1800 UTC 30.1N 84.0W Mouth of Aucilla River, FL 162.0 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
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| AVNN | No landfall forecast
| AVNO | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
|
| GFNO | No landfall forecast
| GFDL | No landfall forecast
| %IMP | |
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