Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
30 August 2006 0000 UTC
Ernesto.
Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model
forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data
increment
| TRACK (km) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | 0 | 15 | 45 | 72 | 67 | 122 | 211 | 297 | 124 |
| AVNO | 0 | 22 | 48 | 107 | 78 | 158 | 167 | 105 | 179 |
| %IMP | 0% | -47% | -7% | -49% | -16% | -30% | 21% | 65% | 56% |
| GFNO | 15 | 45 | 35 | 128 | 211 | 460 | 688 | 835 | 721 | 653
| GFDL | 15 | 29 | 24 | 119 | 195 | 360 | 590 | 727 | 666 | 685
| %IMP | 0% | 36% | 31% | 7% | 8% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 8% | -5%
| INTENSITY (kt)
| MODEL | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 84 h | 96 h | 108 h | 120 h
| AVNN | -4 | -5 | -21 | -26 | 10 | -1 | -19 | -14 | -8 |
| AVNO | -3 | -4 | -22 | -28 | 7 | 4 | -10 | -18 | -2 |
| %IMP | 25% | 20% | -5% | -8% | 30% | -300% | 47% | -29% | 75% |
| GFNO | 15 | 31 | 15 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 13
| GFDL | 21 | 18 | 13 | 7 | -5 | -15 | 12 | -6 | -6 | 8
| %IMP | -40% | 42% | 13% | -250% | -400% | -114% | -20% | -200% | und% | 38%
| | ||||||||||
| 30/0300 UTC 24.9N 80.6W Plantation Key, FL, 3 h into the forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.01 | 80.53 | 2.5 | 14.1 | Tavernier, FL
| AVNO | 24.91 | 80.63 | 2.5 | 3.2 | Islamorada, FL
| %IMP | 0% | 77%
| GFNO | 24.96 | 80.60 | 1.5 | 6.7 | Plantation Key, FL
| GFDL | 24.92 | 80.70 | 2.0 | 10.3 | Islamorada, FL
| %IMP | 33% | -54%
|
30/0500 UTC 25.2N 80.7W Southwestern Miami-Dade County, FL, 5 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 25.16 | 80.65 | 4.5 | 6.7 | Flamingo, FL
| AVNO | 25.17 | 80.80 | 5.0 | 10.6 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | 100% | -58%
| GFNO | 25.13 | 80.74 | 4.0 | 9.3 | Flamingo, FL
| GFDL | 25.16 | 80.88 | 5.0 | 18.6 | Flamingo, FL
| %IMP | 100% | -100%
|
01/0340 UTC 33.9N 78.1W Oak Island, NC, 51.75 h into the forecast
| MODEL | LAT | LON | TIME | ERROR | LOCATION
| AVNN | 33.13 | 79.16 | 45.5 | 130.2 | Georgetown, SC
| AVNO | 32.94 | 79.57 | 50.0 | 173.1 | Bull Bay, SC
| %IMP | -72% | -33%
| GFNO | 32.96 | 79.56 | 51.0 | 171.0 | Bull Bay, SC
| GFDL | 33.14 | 79.30 | 44.5 | 139.6 | Georgetown, SC
| %IMP | -867% | 18%
| | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 30 August 2006 0000 UTC (Tropical Storm Ernesto).
Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 30 August 2006 0000 UTC.
Figure 3. NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System track forecasts for all cyclones in the Atlantic basin initialized from 28 August 2006 0600 UTC to 29 August 2006 0000 UTC, showing the tracks of Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Figure 4. Ensemble perturbation variance at the nominal sampling time 30 August 2006 0000 UTC from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 5. Variance explained within the verification region (large red circle) for observations taken at the sampling time 30 August 2006 0000 UTC from the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter run from the previous day NCEP ensemble forecast. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
Figure 6. Adjoint-Derived Steering Sensitivity Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 30 August 2006 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 7. NOGAPS Singular Vector for observations taken at the sampling time 30 August 2006 0000 UTC. The green circles represent the dropwindsonde locations. [not available]
Figure 8. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 30 August 2006 0000 UTC. The circles represent the dropwindsonde locations.
