Effects of Synoptic Surveillance on model forecasts for
03 August 2006 1200 UTC
Chris.

Quicktime movie of AVN DLM wind model forecast
Quicktime movie of DLM wind data increment

TRACK AND INTENSITY PERFORMANCE
TRACK (km)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	33	46	84	72
AVNO	15	76	114	153
%IMP	55%	-65%	-36%	-113%

GFNO	56	103	126	166	223
GFDL	126	196	234	300	355
%IMP	-125%	-90%	-86%	-81%	-59%
INTENSITY (kt)
MODEL	12 h	24 h	36 h	48 h	60 h	72 h	84 h	96 h	108 h	120 h
AVNN	2	0	-1	2
AVNO	-2	-1	-2	1
%IMP	0%	und%	-100%	50%

GFNO	14	22	5	6	1
GFDL	32	18	22	16	18
%IMP	-129%	18%	-340%	-167%	-1700%

Figure 1. NCEP 850 - 200 hPa mean wind analysis for 03 August 2006 1200 UTC (Tropical Storm Chris).

Figure 2. Track forecasts for the no dropwindsonde (NO or NN) and the all dropwindsonde (AL) runs for the AVN and GFDL models initialized on 03 August 2006 1200 UTC.

Figure 3. Initial condition differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 1200 UTC.

Figure 4. 12-h forecast differences in the 850 - 200 hPa mean wind between the no and all dropwindsonde cases for 03 August 2006 1200 UTC.