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IFEX daily log

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Today the system in the Caribbean looks bit better organized. Visible imagery (Fig. 203) indicates a possible midlevel circulation south of the eastern tip of Cuba and east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Infrared imagery (Fig. 204) shows an area of relatively concentrated deep convection mostly displaced to the east of this midlevel circulation. QuikScat-derived winds (Fig. 205) show a cyclonic curvature to the surface winds, but no evidence of a closed circulation. Vertical shear remains low over the system, however (Fig. 206) and the waters are warm, so the environment is favorable for continued development. Track guidance for the system, should it develop (Fig. 207), brings it generally northwest toward the Yucatan peninsula within 3-4 days. If the system does develop into a tropical depression, there would be interest to fly a RAINEX mission with the NRL P-3 and N43RF. The mission would be along the lines of the Convective Burst module described in the 2005 HFP plan, similar to what was flown on the first day of the Ophelia flights. Since there are limited flight hours left for the NRL P-3, however, only one mission would be possible. The tasking of any such mission would occur only if a tropical depression forms, however.

Figure 203. GOES-East visible image valid 1415 UTC September 27.

Figure 204. GOES-East infrared image valid 1415 UTC September 27.

Figure 205. QuikScat surface winds (barbs, kt) valid 1322 UTC September 27.

Figure 206. CIMSS-derived 850-200 hPa vertical shear (contours, kt) valid 12 UTC September 27.

Figure 207. Track forecast guidance for Caribbean system valid 12 UTC September 27.

Rob Rogers
HRD Field Program director

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