Tuesday, September 06, 2005

	The system off the Florida coast has become much better organized today, with 
concentrated deep convection (Fig. 91).  Because of this improved organization, the 
system was named Tropical Depression #16.  The large-scale vertical shear (Fig. 92) is 
moderate and southerly, reflecting upper-level southerly flow around an anticyclone 
centered over T.D. #15.  Most of the track guidance now takes the system generally 
northward along the Florida coast (Fig. 93).  Some of the dynamical models, such as 
NOGAPS, suggest a slow motion, keeping T.D. #16 off the Florida coast even after 4-5 
days.
	The tasked mission for N42RF into T.D. #16 was scheduled to take off at ???? 
UTC.  There would also be the NOAA Frequent-Monitoring experiment and the NOAA 
Ocean Winds experiment piggy-backed onto the tasked mission.  The plan called for the 
NRL P-3 to also be in the system while N42RF was out there.  The NRL P-3 would target 
a burst of convection, either circumnavigating the convective system as in the Convective 
Burst Module of the Tropical Cyclogenesis Experiment or running back and forth across 
one side of the convective burst.  The actual flight pattern flown was similar to that 
planned (Fig. 94), providing good radar coverage for the first sampling in the Frequent 
Monitoring experiment.
Elsewhere in the Tropics, T.D. #15 has become Tropical Storm Nate.  Nate has 
wrapped convection around the center and is looking healthier this morning.  Nate is 
underneath an upper-level anticyclone (cf. Fig. 92) and is expected to continue to 
intensify, but it is not a factor for operations.

 

Figure 91.  GOES-East Infrared image valid 0245 UTC September 7, 2005.

 

Figure 92.  CIMSS-derived 850-200 hPa vertical shear (contour, kt) valid 00 UTC 
September 2005.

 
Figure 93. Track guidance for T.D. #16 valid 06 UTC September 6, 2005.

 

Figure 94.  Track of N42RF and NRL P-3 for flight 050906H1.