Thursday, September 1, 2005

	Today there were no flights planned for any of the P-3Ős.  N43RF is flying a 
survey mission over the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, while N42RF and the NRL P-3 
are both down at Tampa.
	There are several systems in the Atlantic, but none that are a potential target 
anytime soon.  Of the ones of most interest to possible operations, the first is Tropical 
Depression #14, located at 18 N 46 W (Fig. 69).  As can be seen from the visible 
imagery, the deep convection is to the northwest of the circulation, leaving an exposed 
low-level circulation.  Vertical shear over the system is moderate to strong, 20-25 kt (Fig. 
70), and there is dry air wrapping around the west side of the system (Fig. 71).  For these 
reasons, it is not anticipated that T.D. #14 will develop into a significant tropical cyclone.  
Furthermore, track guidance (Fig. 72) predicts that this system will move to the 
northwest, out of range for any possible operations, even St. Croix.

 

Figure 69.  GOES-East Visible image valid 1345 UTC September 1.

	Elsewhere, a tropical wave with vigorous convection is located between Africa 
and the lesser Antilles (Fig. 73).  This wave shows evidence of a possible midlevel 
circulation, and tropical cyclogenesis may take place over the next day or so.  It is 
possible that this system could become a target in the Caribbean, but that would be 5-7 
days away.
 

Figure 70.  CIMSS-derived vertical shear (shaded, kt) and shear tendency (contour, kt/24-
hr) valid 12 UTC September 1.

 
Figure 71.  Total column-integrated water vapor from the NASA TRMM TMI satellite 
valid August 31.
 
Figure 72.  Track guidance for Tropical Depression 14 valid 12 UTC September 1.

 

Figure 73.  GOES-East Infrared image valid 1345 UTC September 1.



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