How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Nino? Christopher W. Landsea NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, U.S.A. John A. Knaff NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. 7 March, 2000