Table 1

Table 1: Summary of information on named tropical cyclones occurring during the 1995 Atlantic season. Information on tropical storms (TS - one minute surface winds of 18-32 m s^-1), minor hurricanes (MH - 33-49 m s^-1) and intense hurricanes (IH - ł 50 m s^-1) with highest Saffir-Simpson (Simpson 1974) category is shown. Dates indicate the days in which the storm was at least tropical storm force in intensity. Individual totals of named storm days (NSD - days in which the storm has at least 18 m s^-1 winds), hurricane days (HD - days of winds at least 33 m s^-1), intense hurricane days (IHD - days of winds at least 50 m s^-1), and hurricane destruction potential (HDP - sum of winds squared every six hours that the storm is of hurricane force in units of 10⁴ kt²) are also provided.

Named Maximum Dates of Named Maximum Sustained
Storm Category Storm Stage Surface Winds (m s^-1) NSD HD IHD HDP
1. Allison MH-1 Jun. 3-5 33 m s^-1 2.50 0.75 0 1.3
2. Barry TS Jul. 7-10 31 3.25 0 0 0
3. Chantal TS Jul. 14-20 31 6.75 0 0 0
4. Dean TS Jul. 30-31 21 0.50 0 0 0
5. Erin MH-2 Jul. 31-Aug. 4 44 4.50 2.50 0 5.3
6. Felix IH-4 Aug. 8-22 62 14.00 9.25 1.75 24.2
7. Gabrielle TS Aug. 9-11 31 1.50 0 0 0
8. Humberto MH-2 Aug. 22-Sep. 1 49 10.00 8.50 0 21.0
9. Iris MH-2 Aug. 22-Sep. 4 49 12.75 7.50 0 17.6
10. Jerry TS Aug. 23-24 23 1.25 0 0 0
11. Karen TS Aug. 28-Sep. 2 23 5.25 0 0 0
12. Luis IH-4 Aug. 29-Sep. 11 62 12.75 10.50 8.25 52.3
13. Marilyn IH-3 Sep. 13-22 52 9.25 7.75 0.50 19.9
14. Noel MH-1 Sep. 27-Oct. 7 33 9.75 2.75 0 4.6
15. Opal IH-4 Sep. 30-Oct. 5 67 5.00 2.75 1.00 9.0
16. Pablo TS Oct. 5-8 26 3.00 0 0 0
17. Roxanne IH-3 Oct. 9-18 52 10.00 5.00 0.25 11.2
18. Sebastien TS Oct. 21-23 28 3.00 0 0 0
19. Tanya MH-1 Oct. 27-Nov. 1 39 5.50 3.00 0 6.1

Table 2

Table 2: Summary of the 1995 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity and comparison with average conditions.

Forecast	Climatology	1995	1995 in
Parameter	(1950-90)		% of Climatology
Named Storms (NS)	9.3	19	204%
Named Storm Days (NSD)	46.6	121	260%
Hurricanes (H)	5.8	11	190%
Hurricane Days (HD)	23.9	60	251%
Intense Hurricanes (IH)	2.3	5	217%
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)	4.7	11.75	250%
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)	71.2	172	241%
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)	100%	229%	229%

Table 3

Table 3: Comparison of 1995 hurricane activity with the ten most active hurricane seasons during the last 110 years. Numbers of all of the parameters are less reliable before the mid-1940s (Neumann et al. 1993, Landsea 1993). Following Landsea (1993), the 1944-1969 values of IH, IHD, HDP and NTC are adjusted slightly downward to account for an overestimation of the tropical cyclone best track winds. Underlined values show seasonal totals for a particular parameter that were greater than or equal to the values for 1995.

Forecast
Parameter	1995	1969	1961	1955	1950	1933	1926	1916	1906	1893	1887
Named Storms (NS)	19	17	11	12	13	21	11	14	11	12	19
Named Storm Days (NSD)	121	84	71	82	98	136	87	88	89	111	106
Hurricanes (H)	11	12	8	9	11	7	8	11	10	10
Hurricane Days (HD)	60	40	48	47	60	50	55	47	44	72	55
Intense Hurricanes (IH)	5	3	6	5	7	5	6	6	4	3	2
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)	11.75	2.75	20.75	13.75	15.75	10.50	23.00	10.75	11.25	25.00	8.25
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)	172	110	170	158	200	152	197	143	137	230	158
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)	229%	156%	222%	198%	243%	215%	237%	203%	168%	250%	179%

Table 4

Table 4: 1995 Caribbean 200 mb Zonal Wind Anomalies (ZWA) in m s^-1 and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in mb for the base period 1950 to 1990. ZWA is computed from the four stations of Kingston (18^°N), Curacao (12^°N), Barbados (13.5^°N), and Trinidad (11^°N). SLP anomalies are computed by two indices: the Caribbean (San Juan, Barbados, Trinidad, Curacao and Cayenne) and the Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico (Brownsville, Miami, Merida, San Juan, Curacao and Barbados).

	April	May	June	July	August	September	October
Average ZWA (m s^-1)	-2.5	-0.5	-1.6	-4.3	-7.0	-4.1	-0.8
Caribbean SLP anomalies (mb)	-0.9	+0.5	-0.2	-1.2	-1.3	+0.3	-0.2
Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico SLP anomalies (mb)	-1.4	-0.4	-0.8	-1.2	-2.9	-0.3	-1.4

Table 5

Table 5: August-October values and differences for 1994 and 1995. Tropical cyclone parameters are shown in the top portion of the panel and environmental factors are shown in the bottom portion.

Tropical Cyclone Parameters

NS H IH NSD HD IHD HDP NTC
1995 14 9 5 104 57 11.75 165 206%
1994 4 1 0 11 2 0 4 15%
1995-1994 10 8 5 93 55 11.75 161 191%

Environmental Parameters

Caribbean Caribbean/ Tropical Niño 3.4 Caribbean Western < /td>
200 mb Gulf of Mexico Atlantic SST 30 mb Sahel
zonal wind SLP SST anomalies anomalies zonal wind rainfall
anomalies anomalies (5-20^°N, 30-60^°W) (^°C) anomalies anomalies
(m s^-1) (mb) (^°C) (m s^°) (Std. Devs.)
1995 -4.0 -1.5 +0.5 -0.6 -6 -0.22
1994 +1.1 +0.7 -0.3 +0.6 -25 -0.20
1995-1994 -5.1 -2.2 +0.8 -1.2 +19 +0.02

Table 6

Table 6: Verification of the 1995 seasonal hurricane predictions (Gray 1994, 1995, Gray et al. 1995a,b).

	30 Nov.	14 Apr. 1995	7 June	4 August
Forecast	1994	Qualitative	1995	1995
Parameter	Forecast	Adjustment	Forecast	Forecast	Verification
Named Storms (NS)	12	10	12	16	19
Named Storm Days (NSD)	65	50	65	65	121
Hurricanes (H)	8	6	8	9	11
Hurricane Days (HD)	35	25	35	30	60
Intense Hurricanes (IH)	3	2	3	3	5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)	8	5	6	5	11.75
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)	100	75	110	90	172
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)	140%	100%	140%	130%	229%

Table 7

Table 7: Verification of 4 August 1995 forecast for hurricane activity after 1 August.

	Climatology	Forecast
Forecast	(1950-1990)	Activity	After 1 Aug
Parameter	After 1 Aug	After 1 Aug	Verification
Named Storms (NS)	7.9	11	14
Named Storm Days (NSD)	42.0	49	104
Hurricanes (H)	5.2	7	9
Hurricane Days (HD)	22.7	27	57
Intense Hurricanes (IH)	2.2	3	5
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)	4.7	5	11.75
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP)	68.4	84	165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)	92.8%	107%	206%

	Named	Maximum	Dates of Named	Maximum Sustained
	Storm	Category	Storm Stage	Surface Winds (m s^-1)	NSD	HD	IHD	HDP
1.	Allison	MH-1	Jun. 3-5	33 m s^-1	2.50	0.75	0	1.3
2.	Barry	TS	Jul. 7-10	31	3.25	0	0	0
3.	Chantal	TS	Jul. 14-20	31	6.75	0	0	0
4.	Dean	TS	Jul. 30-31	21	0.50	0	0	0
5.	Erin	MH-2	Jul. 31-Aug. 4	44	4.50	2.50	0	5.3
6.	Felix	IH-4	Aug. 8-22	62	14.00	9.25	1.75	24.2
7.	Gabrielle	TS	Aug. 9-11	31	1.50	0	0	0
8.	Humberto	MH-2	Aug. 22-Sep. 1	49	10.00	8.50	0	21.0
9.	Iris	MH-2	Aug. 22-Sep. 4	49	12.75	7.50	0	17.6
10.	Jerry	TS	Aug. 23-24	23	1.25	0	0	0
11.	Karen	TS	Aug. 28-Sep. 2	23	5.25	0	0	0
12.	Luis	IH-4	Aug. 29-Sep. 11	62	12.75	10.50	8.25	52.3
13.	Marilyn	IH-3	Sep. 13-22	52	9.25	7.75	0.50	19.9
14.	Noel	MH-1	Sep. 27-Oct. 7	33	9.75	2.75	0	4.6
15.	Opal	IH-4	Sep. 30-Oct. 5	67	5.00	2.75	1.00	9.0
16.	Pablo	TS	Oct. 5-8	26	3.00	0	0	0
17.	Roxanne	IH-3	Oct. 9-18	52	10.00	5.00	0.25	11.2
18.	Sebastien	TS	Oct. 21-23	28	3.00	0	0	0
19.	Tanya	MH-1	Oct. 27-Nov. 1	39	5.50	3.00	0	6.1


	Caribbean	Caribbean/	Tropical	Niño 3.4	Caribbean	Western	< /td>
	200 mb	Gulf of Mexico	Atlantic	SST	30 mb	Sahel
	zonal wind	SLP	SST anomalies	anomalies	zonal wind	rainfall
	anomalies	anomalies	(5-20^°N, 30-60^°W)	(^°C)	anomalies	anomalies
	(m s^-1)	(mb)	(^°C)		(m s^°)	(Std. Devs.)
1995	-4.0	-1.5	+0.5	-0.6	-6	-0.22
1994	+1.1	+0.7	-0.3	+0.6	-25	-0.20
1995-1994	-5.1	-2.2	+0.8	-1.2	+19	+0.02