THE ROLE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE EMILY (1987)

Principal Investigator: John Kaplan
Collaborating scientist(s):
Mark DeMaria (NHC)
Objective: Use data collected during NOAA P-3 research flights to examine the role that an upper-level trough may have played in the rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily (1987).
Rationale: Past research suggests that the interaction between upper-level troughs and tropical cyclones is related to TC intensification. Early on 25 September, Emily (1987) intensified rapidly and unexpectedly while an upper-level trough was situated a few hundred kilometers northwest of the storm center. Since NOAA P-3 aircraft had collected data in Emily's large-scale environment twice during the 24 h immediately preceding this rapid intensification, a quantitative evaluation of the role that the upper-level trough may have had on Emily's intensification was undertaken.
Method: Evaluate the terms in the balanced vortex model, and compare the changes in kinematic structure expected due to the forcing from these terms to the observed structural changes in Emily using data collected during NOAA P-3 research flights.
Accomplishment: The angular momentum flux terms in the balanced vortex model were evaluated and radius height (R-P) plots of these quantities were obtained for each of the two time periods for which NOAA P-3 data were collected. (R-P) plots of the radial (U), tangential (V), and vertical (W) wind components were also obtained for both time periods. The differences between the wind components at these two time periods were computed (Figure) and compared to the changes in storm structure expected based on the balanced vortex theory. These results were part of a presentation made at the 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Work also began on evaluating the remaining terms in the balanced vortex model and the results of this research will be reported on in the future.
Key reference:
Kaplan, J., 1995: An examination of the role of large-scale forcing on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Emily (1987). Preprints, 21st Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 332-334.
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