
Project STORMFURY was an ambitious experimental
program of research on hurricane modification carried out between 1962
and 1983. The proposed modification technique involved artificial
stimulation of convection outside the eyewall through seeding
with silver iodide. The invigorated convection, it was argued,
would compete with the original eyewall, lead to reformation of
the eyewall at larger radius, and thus, through partial
conservation of angular momentum, produce a decrease in the
strongest winds.
Since a hurricane's destructive potential increases rapidly as its
strongest winds become stronger, a reduction as small as 10%
would have been worthwhile. Modification was attempted in four
hurricanes on eight different days. On four of these days, the
winds decreased by between 10 and 30%, The lack of response on
the other days was interpreted to be the result of faulty
execution of the seeding or of poorly selected subjects.
These promising results came into question in the mid-1980s
because observations in unmodified hurricanes indicated:
- That cloud seeding had little prospect of success because
hurricanes contained too much natural ice and too little
supercooled water.
- That the positive results inferred from the seeding
experiments in the 1960s stemmed from inability to discriminate
between the expected results of human intervention and the
natural behavior of hurricanes.
Reference
Willoughby, H. E., D. P. Jorgensen, R. A. Black, and S. L. Rosenthal, 1985:
Project STORMFURY, A Scientific Chronicle, 1962-1983,
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 505-514.
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