********************************************* * NESDIS/TPC/HRD INTENSITY FORECAST (SHIPS) * * ATLANTIC 5-DAY VERSION * ********************************************* MICHELLE 11/03/01 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 97 103 102 97 87 76 66 60 53 47 V (KT) LAND 85 97 103 102 82 65 54 44 38 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 7 13 20 33 41 49 59 64 66 58 36 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.7 28.1 27.0 25.8 24.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 155 148 138 143 129 117 108 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -49.0 -48.0 200 MB U (KT) -3 1 7 17 25 35 44 58 64 69 52 850-700 MB RH 80 81 79 79 79 76 69 63 65 59 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 0 0 -5 0 -10 -4 -10 2 850 MB VORT 133 149 158 170 183 179 181 132 105 102 169 LAND (KM) 300 277 167 77 0 111 384 866 1173 1020 605 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.5 22.7 24.0 25.3 27.6 30.8 35.1 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.1 84.1 83.5 82.8 80.6 76.4 71.0 64.6 60.7 59.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM SPEED/HEADING (KTS/DEG) 5/ 0 EAST/NORTH STORM MOTION COMPONENTS 0/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 505 (MEAN=614) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -26. -31. -33. -32. -29. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 850-700 MB RH 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB MOM. FLUX 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 12. 18. 17. 12. 2. -9. -19. -25. -32. -38. ------------------------------------------------ RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX (30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN 24 HR) 4 OF 5 RI CONDITIONS SATISFIED PROB OF RI (26.1%) is 4.3 TIMES THAT OF THE SAMPLE MEAN (6.1%)