* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL21 AL212010 11/05/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL212010 AL21 11/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 5.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 68% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 13.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 53% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL21 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 65. 17.7 -75.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 70%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 80%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 1105 06 3.2 36.8 10 1105 00 0.7 37.0 10 1104 18 0.7 36.3 10 1104 12 0.0 3.6 10 1104 06 0.0 9.2 10 1104 00 1.4 34.1 10 1103 18 6.3 10.2 10 1103 12 2.8 25.6 10 1103 06 20.6 12.8 10 1103 00 253.3 18.0 10 1102 18 764.7 25.1 10 1102 12 569.4 16.5 10 1102 06 269.8 53.3 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL212010 AL21 11/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.1 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 144.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 72% is 16.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 68% is 20.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)