*   ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS        *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  AL21        AL212010  10/30/10  12 UTC   *

++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL212010 AL21       10/30/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.1 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  91.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  95.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.1 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    46% is   3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    24% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    16% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++
                    FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND       

AL21       Initial vmax, lat, lon:    65.   13.1   -60.1

 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    47%,   no lightning input, exper. algorithm
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    52%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm

Recent Lightning Density History  (Strikes/km2-year)
Date/Time    Inner core (0-100 km)  Rainband (300-400 km)
10 1030 12     1.6                    30.4
10 1030 06     1.4                     1.4
10 1030 00     0.0                     1.4
10 1029 18     0.0                     2.1

Sample mean:  21.5                    14.7

 Note: Inner core lightning <  sample mean favors RI
       Rainband lightning   >  sample mean favors RI

++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++
                    FOR JHT     

      ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL212010 AL21       10/30/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/ -0.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.1 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  91.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  95.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:   4.4 Range: 94.6 to   0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :   0.9 Range:  2.2 to  -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.1 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 100.6 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 263.4 Range:648.0 to  15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    49% is   3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    27% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    23% is   4.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    23% is   6.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)