* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL19 AL192010 10/24/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL192010 AL19 10/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 16.4 -85.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 1024 06 0.0 41.6 10 1024 00 0.0 12.9 10 1023 18 20.4 4.1 10 1023 12 34.7 6.1 10 1023 06 54.5 30.0 10 1023 00 147.7 19.7 10 1022 18 453.4 17.0 10 1022 12 643.4 10.9 10 1022 06 198.1 45.6 10 1022 00 268.9 14.3 10 1021 18 121.2 6.8 10 1021 12 5.4 11.6 10 1021 06 18.4 3.4 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL192010 AL19 10/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.9 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 191.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)