* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL19 AL192010 10/21/10 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL192010 AL19 10/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL19 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 16.0 -80.5 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 1021 18 284.8 16.0 10 1021 12 5.4 11.6 10 1021 06 18.4 3.4 10 1021 00 0.0 4.8 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 AL19 10/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.2 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.0 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)