* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL18 AL182010 10/12/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL182010 AL18 10/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL18 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 60. 17.2 -85.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 1012 06 155.2 260.8 10 1012 00 79.7 54.5 10 1011 18 25.9 82.4 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 AL18 10/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.6 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 95.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 409.2 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 36% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)