* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL16 AL162010 09/28/10 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL162010 AL16 09/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL16 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 20.2 -82.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0928 12 9.6 102.4 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL162010 AL16 09/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.3 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)