*   ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS        *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  AL15        AL152010  09/24/10  18 UTC   *

++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152010 AL15       09/24/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  69.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.9 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  26.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    58% is   4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    42% is   5.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++
                    FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND       

AL15       Initial vmax, lat, lon:    45.   14.6   -83.0

 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    34%,   no lightning input, exper. algorithm
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm

Recent Lightning Density History  (Strikes/km2-year)
Date/Time    Inner core (0-100 km)  Rainband (300-400 km)
10 0924 18   320.0                    44.8
10 0924 12    91.9                     8.9
10 0924 06    35.6                     7.1
10 0924 00     1.4                    14.2
10 0923 18     0.0                    15.6

Sample mean:  21.5                    14.7

 Note: Inner core lightning <  sample mean favors RI
       Rainband lightning   >  sample mean favors RI

++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++
                    FOR JHT     

      ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL152010 AL15       09/24/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/ -0.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  69.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:   6.2 Range: 94.6 to   0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  -1.0 Range:  2.2 to  -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.9 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :  26.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):  98.8 Range:648.0 to  15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.8

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    34% is   2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    33% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    12% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)