* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP12 EP122010 09/22/10 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP122010 EP12 09/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP12 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 27.7 -111.2 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 1%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0922 18 187.2 0.0 10 0922 12 65.8 0.0 10 0922 06 16.8 1.3 10 0922 00 5.0 0.0 10 0921 18 81.5 0.5 10 0921 12 42.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC Re-Run RII EP122010 EP12 09/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 63.3 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.4 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)