* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP12 EP122010 09/21/10 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP122010 EP12 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP12 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 23.0 -109.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 0%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0921 18 257.6 1.6 10 0921 12 42.0 0.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC Re-Run RII EP122010 EP12 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.6 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 144.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)