* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL13 AL132010 09/17/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL132010 AL13 09/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL13 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 85. 19.7 -94.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0917 00 72.0 27.2 10 0916 18 71.8 1.2 10 0916 12 18.7 5.3 10 0916 06 5.3 5.3 10 0916 00 0.6 9.3 10 0915 18 98.5 10.9 10 0915 12 46.5 6.2 10 0915 06 0.7 4.8 10 0915 00 0.0 36.8 10 0914 18 1.4 62.6 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL132010 AL13 09/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.7 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.2 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)