* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL09 AL092010 09/02/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL092010 AL09 09/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL09 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 13.6 -38.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0902 06 12.8 4.8 10 0902 00 81.3 1.3 10 0901 18 13.3 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 AL09 09/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 242.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)