* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL08 AL082010 08/31/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL082010 AL08 08/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL08 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 15.5 -51.8 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0831 06 24.0 3.2 10 0831 00 0.9 6.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL082010 AL08 08/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.4 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 97.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 220.6 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)