* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL07 AL072010 08/26/10 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL072010 AL07 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL07 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 15.1 -38.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0826 18 0.0 0.0 10 0826 06 0.0 0.0 10 0826 00 1.7 0.0 10 0825 18 0.0 0.0 10 0825 12 0.0 0.0 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 AL07 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 97.4 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 314.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)