* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP09 EP092010 08/22/10 06 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP092010 EP09 08/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP09 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 13.7 -94.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0822 06 0.0 51.2 10 0822 00 0.0 11.7 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP09 08/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.2 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -3.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)