* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP09 EP092010 08/22/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP092010 EP09 08/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 88% is 7.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 43% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP09 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 13.9 -93.6 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0822 00 0.0 32.0 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC Re-Run RII EP092010 EP09 08/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.2 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -10.8 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)