* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL03 AL032010 07/23/10 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL032010 AL03 07/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL03 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 35. 24.8 -79.7 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0723 12 59.2 4.8 10 0723 06 9.6 4.5 10 0723 00 27.0 13.5 10 0722 18 3.2 18.6 10 0722 12 3.2 1.9 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL032010 AL03 07/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.9 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.8 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)