* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL01 AL012010 06/27/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL012010 AL01 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL01 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 50. 17.5 -88.1 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0627 00 46.4 72.0 10 0626 18 9.6 2.1 10 0626 12 26.7 6.2 10 0626 06 0.7 11.6 10 0626 00 5.4 16.3 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 AL01 06/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.0 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP :9999.0 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.4 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)