* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP05 EP052010 06/23/10 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP052010 EP05 06/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 45. 11.7 -94.4 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0623 12 4.8 62.4 10 0623 06 0.6 4.7 10 0623 00 0.0 40.3 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP05 06/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.1 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.6 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)