* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP04 EP042010 06/19/10 12 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP042010 EP04 06/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP04 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 30. 12.8 -97.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0619 12 0.0 30.4 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) E. PACIFIC RI INDEX E EP04 06/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.4 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 Range: 25.0 to 120.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)