* EPAC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EP02 EP022010 06/17/10 00 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2010 E. Pacific RE-RUN RII EP022010 EP02 06/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 82% is 7.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND EP02 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 25. 15.1 -96.3 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 10 0617 00 19.2 38.4 10 0616 18 3.1 0.0 10 0616 12 1.6 0.5 Sample mean: 14.9 7.9 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2010 EXPERIMENTAL E. PACIFIC Re-Run RII EP022010 EP02 06/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 126.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.6 Range: 45.0 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 Range: 1.9 to -1.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.8 Range:580.0 to -18.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ -0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.5%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.8%)